Tigers vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - April 5, 2023

Tigers at Astros

6:10 pm • SportsNet SW

Detroit Tigers

4-3

2 - 8

Houston Astros

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Javier			4.56	10-5
E.Rodriguez			3.30	13-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Tigers 4-3	+1.5-105	o7.5-120	+200
Astros 0-2	-1.5-115	u7.5-102	-250

Wednesday 6:10 p.m.

April 05, 2023

Daikin ParkHouston

Under 8.5-102

HOU -220 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to -260

A.Bregman o1.5 Total Bases+112

$45.00

HOU -255

0.39u

Keeping units low here until I have a larger sample on whether my MLB moneyline is performing well. Available at FanDuel. The Astros have sucked to open the year, which makes sense given how many key pieces they're missing from their lineup. But they still have guys who can bang lefties. They have seven players on the active roster who have a wRC+ of 100 or higher against lefties since the start of last year (min. 100 PAs). That's not a great stat to utilize in a small sample, but it shows they're not fully deprived of depth. I've got the Astros at 74.6% to win, up from 71.8% implied.

Under 7.5-112

Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Wednesday MLB Betting Card
Sean Zerillo•
Apr 5, 2023 UTC

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The Astros are 49-29 (.628) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2021 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .410.

The Astros are 67-4 (.944) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.

The Tigers are just 9-47 (.161) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.

The Tigers are just 4-8 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season -- tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Kyle Tucker had a swing rate of 47% on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 30 days -- fifth highest in MLB-- 95th Percentile. Opponents batted just .200 (5-for-25) against Eduardo Rodriguez on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 30 days -- seventh best among qualified SPs-- 88th Percentile.

Javier Baez had an OPS of just .671 last season -- 15th worst in MLB-- 11th Percentile. Cristian Javier allowed an OPS of just .557 (585 PAs) last season -- seventh best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 96th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 57% (16/28) against Cristian Javier this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (3/14) against Eduardo Rodriguez this season -- tied for 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% -- seventh Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Astros are 41-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Astros' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Astros' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	81-80	40-41	41-39	56-60	23-19
Tigers	87-75	39-42	48-33	27-39	60-36

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Astros	65-91-5	37-41-3	28-50-2	45-66-5	18-24
Tigers	79-78-5	36-43-2	43-35-3	31-32-3	48-46-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	88-73	46-35	42-38	66-50	20-22
Tigers	86-76	43-38	43-38	38-28	48-48

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 5th	DET	L 3-6	-1.5 L	O 7.5	DET -285
Apr 4th	DET	L 6-7	-1.5 L	O 8	DET -250
Apr 2nd	CWS	L 3-6	-1.5 L	O 7.5	CWS -145
Apr 1st	CWS	W 6-4	-1.5 W	O 8.5	HOU -141
Apr 1st	CWS	W 6-3	-1.5 W	O 8	HOU -160

Lance McCullers
P
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Cristian Javier
P
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
P
Garcia is out with elbow
Out

Javier Baez
IF
Baez is out with back
Out
Sawyer Gipson-Long
P
Gipson-Long is out with groin
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LE.Rodriguez, P	95	4.2	1	4
RG. Hill, P	29	1.1	2	1
LT.Alexander, P	45	2	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1N.Maton, 3B	1-4	0	1
2R.Greene, CF	2-4	1	0
3M.Vierling, RF	1-4	0	0
4A. Meadows, LF	1-4	0	1
5S.Torkelson, 1B	0-4	0	0
6K.Carpenter, DH	0-3	0	0
7E.Haase, C	1-3	0	0
8Z.McKinstry, 2B	1-4	1	0
9R.Kreidler, SS	0-2	0	0
9J.Baez, PH	0-1	0	0
9J.Baez, SS	0-1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Javier, P	99	6	5	1
RB.Abreu, P	16	1	1	0
RR.Montero, P	18	1	2	1
RR.Pressly, P	11	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Pena, SS	2-5	2	1	2
2A.Bregman, 3B	0-5	1	0	0
3Y.Alvarez, DH	1-2	0	0	1
4J.Abreu, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
5K.Tucker, RF	2-4	1	1	2
6D.Hensley, 2B	1-3	2	0	0
7C.McCormick, CF	2-4	1	1	2
8C.Julks, LF	2-3	1	0	1
9C.Salazar, C	0-4	0	0	0