Tigers vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - July 30, 2023

Tigers at Marlins

5:40 pm • BSFL

Detroit Tigers

5-6

6 - 8

Miami Marlins

3-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Luzardo			3.63	10-9
T.Skubal			2.80	7-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Tigers 5-6	+1.5-170	o7-110	+132
Marlins 3-6	-1.5+140	u7-110	-159

Sunday 5:40 p.m.

July 30, 2023

loanDepot parkMiami

J.Luzardo o7.5 Ks+100

DET +0.5 (F5)-125

-EV bet but I’m so hung and I want to sweat something and I want the fish to win

Under 7-110

DET +120 (F5)

Under 7-110

1.1u

DET +140 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to +125

DET +135

0.5u

Bet to +130

T.Skubal o4.5 Hits Allowed-125

Skubal has been sterling in three starts back from his elbow injury, and awful in one. Despite the extremes, his average is likely somewhere in the middle. But the Marlins are going to be on the harder end of the spectrum for Skubal, as far as hits are concerned. As a team they are hitting .308 vs lefties, with a tiny 19.7% K%. And the Marlins will keep his pitch count down - even with just 80 pitches, I have him at 20 batters faced and the Marlins at about 5.6 hits.

Sunday's NRFI: Custom Bet for Luzardo, Snell
Shayne Trail•
Jul 30, 2023 UTC

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The Tigers are just 46-84 (.354) after a loss as underdogs since last season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.

Garrett Cooper has struck out in 30% of PA's this season -- 13th highest in MLB-- eighth Percentile. Craig Kimbrel has a strikeout rate of 37% this season -- sixth highest among qualified RPs-- 97th Percentile.

Tarik Skubal has allowed three-ball counts to 1% of batters they faced (6/427 PA's) against right-handed batters since last season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 10% -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Marlins are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 53 of Marlins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	77-85	35-46	42-39	2-15	75-70
Tigers	87-75	39-42	48-33	27-39	60-36

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	85-66-11	53-20-8	32-46-3	11-5-1	74-61-10
Tigers	79-78-5	36-43-2	43-35-3	31-32-3	48-46-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	62-100	30-51	32-49	4-13	58-87
Tigers	86-76	43-38	43-38	38-28	48-48

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 29th	DET	L 0-5	-1.5 L	U 8.5	DET -158
Jul 28th	DET	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 7.5	MIA -161
Jul 26th	@TB	W 7-1	+1.5 W	O 7.5	MIA +147
Jul 25th	@TB	L 1-4	+1.5 L	U 7.5	TB +173
Jul 23rd	COL	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 7.5	MIA -272

Braxton Garrett
P
Garrett is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

Alex Cobb
P
Cobb is out with hip
Out
Sawyer Gipson-Long
P
Gipson-Long is out with groin
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LT.Skubal, P	78	4.2	4	4
RB.White, P	23	1.1	0	0
LT.Holton, P	21	1	1	2
RJ.Cisnero, P	26	1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1M.Vierling, LF	2-4	1	0
2A.Ibanez, 2B	2-3	0	0
2Z.McKinstry, PH	0-2	0	0
2Z.McKinstry, 3B	0-2	0	0
3S.Torkelson, 1B	1-5	1	1
4R.Greene, CF	1-4	1	0
5J.Baez, SS	2-5	2	1
6J.Rogers, C	1-5	1	0
7M. Cabrera, DH	1-3	0	2
7A.Baddoo, PR	0-1	0	0
7A.Baddoo, DH	0-1	0	0
8K.Carpenter, RF	1-3	0	2
9Z.Short, 3B	0-3	0	0
9Z.Short, 2B	0-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Luzardo, P	96	4.2	3	4
RG.Soriano, P	26	1.1	2	0
LA.Puk, P	23	0.1	1	2
RJ.Lopez, P	11	0.2	1	0
LT.Scott, P	12	1	0	0
RD.Robertson, P	12	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Arraez, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
2B.De La Cruz, LF	0-5	0	0	0
3G.Cooper, DH	1-4	1	1	2
4J.Berti, SS	2-4	1	0	0
4J.Wendle, SS	0-0	0	0	0
5A.Garcia, RF	2-4	1	0	1
6Y.Gurriel, 1B	2-4	1	0	1
7J. Segura, 3B	2-4	2	1	1
8N.Fortes, C	1-4	1	0	1
9G.Hampson, CF	3-4	1	0	2