PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
If you bet on pitcher props religiously like I do, one of the prevailing themes of the last few seasons has been the Brewers struggling mightily against left-handed pitching. In each of the last two seasons, the Brew Crew have struck out against lefties at a top-eight rate, and their wRC+ has been in the bottom 10.
While this season started the same, the Brewers turned over their lineup through minor league call-ups and trades. And the results have flipped the script.
Since July 1st, the Brewers possess a 116 wRC+ and a .805 OPS against southpaws, both firmly in the top-10 in the majors. And even more impressive has been their 20.8% strikeout rate, down from 27.9% in the months before.
Eleven of the last 14 left-handed starting pitchers have stayed under this line against Milwaukee.
The Brewers' next test against a lefty will be Andrew Heaney tonight. Heaney has failed to clear this line in 16 of his 23 starts, including failing to reach five strikeouts in six of his last seven starts.
After a strong 2022 season as a Dodger (with a 35.5% K rate), Heaney has regressed back to his career averages in 2023, currently running a 24.4% strikeout rate. He’s coming off a truncated outing (1 1/3 IP) which Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said was due to an illness Heaney battled prior to the start. While the effects of that might not linger, it’s worth monitoring for tonight.
Despite flying into Texas late last night from Los Angeles, I like the Brew Crew to continue to avoid strikeouts in today’s matchup. I have Heaney projected at 4.8 strikeouts, making this my play of the day.
Pick: Andrew Heaney Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110, DraftKings) | Playable to -115
