Astros vs Athletics Prediction, Player Prop: Fade Spencer Arrighetti (Monday, July 22)
Via Chris Bernacchi/Getty Images. Pictured: Spencer Arrighetti #41 of the Houston Astros throws a pitch during the second inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on May 08, 2024 in New York, New York.
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Spencer Arrighetti Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-117)
After being thrusted into the Astros' starting rotation back in April, it’s been a tough go for Spencer Arrighetti in his first big-league season.
The right-hander is pitching to a 5.63 ERA through 17 starts. He’s struggled mightily with his command, with a 12% Walk Rate (10th percentile, per Baseball Savant) and 3.98 pitches per plate appearance (the 26th-highest mark of the 114 qualified pitchers, per Baseball Reference).
It gets even worse for Arrighetti on the road, where his ERA balloons to 6.70. His Walk Rate (13.4%) and pitches per plate appearance (4.05) also trend in the wrong direction when he’s outside of the friendly confines of Minute Maid Park.
All in all, Arrighetti has gone under this line in 11 of his 17 starts, including seven of nine on the road.
While one might assume it’s a scary proposition to rely on the Athletics’ offense, the stats state the contrary. Oakland’s lineup is eighth in baseball with a 111 wRC+ over the last month against right-handed pitching. And they’ve remained patient as well, with an 8.3% Walk Rate in that same split (10th best).
Arrighetti has already faced Oakland twice, while only registering five innings in each start — once at home and once on the road.
With the Astros bullpen in relatively good shape, I see no reason for manager Joe Espada to push Arrighetti tonight, especially if he’s struggling. I have the rookie projected to once again tap out after five full innings.
Pick: Spencer Arrighetti Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-117 | Play to -135)
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