PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
I’ll get this out of the way right off the bat: The optics of this play aren’t appealing. But yes, I’m fading one of baseball’s premier strikeout artists, Dylan Cease, at home against the lowly Athletics.
If you’ve made it to this paragraph without abandoning ship, I salute you. Let’s dig into this one.
Cease has seen his strikeout percentage dip to 26.7% this season, after posting consecutive campaigns with at least a 30% mark. His swinging strike rate of 13.6% would also be his lowest since 2020.
The results have led to Cease staying under this line in 19 of his 26 starts this season, including 10 of 13 at Guaranteed Rate Field. In fact, at home this season, Cease’s strikeout percentage is a pedestrian (for him, at least) 24.4%.
He’ll face the cellar-dwelling A’s tonight. Oakland is rolling out lineups filled with younger prospects and the results of late have not been half-bad. Over the last 30 days and against right-handed pitching, Oakland’s strikeout rate of 23.5% sits right around the league average. And they are hitting to a 107 wRC+, which ranks 11th over that span.
And if you take the kids out of their home stadium, they’ve been even better. Over the last 30 days against righties in away games, the A's are at a 118 wRC+ and 20.7% strikeout rate (sample of 377 plate appearances).
As usual, the high-end of Cease’s projected strikeouts tonight is … well, high. However, I have him at around 6.8 strikeouts tonight, making the under one of my favorite plays of the day, especially at plus odds. I would play this line down to -115.
Pick: Dylan Cease Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110 at DraftKings) | Bet to -115
