Guardians vs Orioles Player Props Monday: Fade Tanner Bibee (June 24)
Via Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Starting pitcher Tanner Bibee #28 of the Cleveland Guardians pitches during the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field on June 06, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio.
PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 Pitching Outs +100
Guardians vs Orioles | 6:35 p.m. ET
Tanner Bibee has established himself atop the Guardians rotation in his sophomore campaign in the majors. Pitching to a 3.65 ERA, he’s helped to stabilize a pitching staff that’s dealt with losing ace Shane Bieber for the season.
Nonetheless, I’m fading Bibee on his pitching-outs line tonight.
Bibee has gone under this line in 10 of his 15 starts this season, including five of seven on the road. The righty has several indicators that I look for when betting on the under of an outs prop.
First, he throws a lot of pitches. At 4.04 pitches per plate appearance, he ranks 15th out of 121 qualifiers. While that stems from his swing-and-miss arsenal (80th percentile in Whiff Rate), it does require him to limit baserunners to pitch deep into games.
That may be a tough task tonight against this Orioles lineup. Over the last month against right-handed pitching, the Orioles lead all of baseball in wRC+ (152), OPS (.891) and OBP (.347). With a left-handed heavy lineup — I’m expecting six lefties in the order tonight — that plays into Bibee’s worse split where he has a .781 OPS and a .340 wOBA allowed.
These lefties also may get a leg up later in the game because Bibee has struggled the second and third time through a batting order by allowing an OPS of .825 and .816 respectively. Even with some relievers likely unavailable tonight, including all-world closer Emmanuel Clase, there are enough rested arms in the Guardians' top-shelf bullpen.
Tonight I have Bibee projected at 16 outs, making this one of my favorite bets on the slate.
Pick: Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 Pitching Outs +100 (DraftKings | Play to -125)
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