PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
In his third big-league season, George Kirby has established himself as a force toward the top of the Mariners' rotation. Through his first 17 starts this season, the righty has a commendable 3.35 ERA with 96 strikeouts in 99 1/3 innings.
However, in a tough matchup against the visiting Orioles, I’m looking to fade the Seattle starter on his strikeout prop tonight.
Kirby has failed to clear this line in 11 of his 17 outings, including eight of his last 11. He’s more reliant on his pinpoint control — his 2.3% walk rate is the second-lowest amongst qualified pitchers — than he is on strikeouts. In fact, his 26.2% called plus swinging strike rate ranks 89th out of 145 pitchers with at least 50 innings logged.
Kirby and the Mariners have a tough draw tonight against the Orioles. Baltimore is absolutely raking with a wRC+ of 156 and an OPS of .896 over the last two weeks against righties. Both marks lead MLB.
They’ve also been tough to punch out, owning a 16.5% strikeout rate over that span (and 20.2% for the season against righties).
Kirby has the ability to pitch deep into this game, but even at a robust projection of 26 batters faced, I have him at 5.5 strikeouts.
Pick: George Kirby Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145 · Play to -155)
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