We got back on track on Tuesday, cashing both of the picks in the article. Let's keep that momentum rolling into Wednesday.
I have three more NRFI picks for Wednesday's MLB games, including picks for Pirates vs. Rays, Red Sox vs. Orioles and Phillies vs. Rockies.
With that said, let's dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Wednesday, April 2.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Predictions — 4/2
Pirates vs. Rays NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes vs. Ryan Pepiot
This is heavier juice than I typically like to lay on a NRFI, but sometimes the projection justifies the price.
It certainly doesn't come as a shock that Skenes is an elite NRFI pitcher. Not only does he have a 2.02 career ERA, but that number drops to 1.31 his first time through the order.
Pepiot was also much better early in games last season, with a 3.60 overall ERA that fell to 2.30 his first time facing each hitter.
We also have a seven-run total and two lineups without any huge threats at the top. That's enough to justify the price point, and I'd play it down to the -160 line at Caesars.
Red Sox vs. Orioles NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Garrett Crochet vs. Zach Eflin
This game is fairly similar to the above, with both pitchers having very strong splits their first time through the order. While Crochet and Eflin are no Skenes, we're also getting a much better price on the NRFI in this one.
While the lineups are also more difficult and the total is a half-run higher, the weather is predicted to be very pitcher-friendly. Additionally, Camden Yard is a much better pitcher's park than Fenway, so there are a lot of small factors pointing to the NRFI.
Finally, I'm projecting this out based on Boston's Rafael Devers' stats from last season. He's hitless through 23 at-bats this year and seems to be struggling with some injuries, so there's a case we could have an even stronger projection for no runs here.
Phillies vs. Rockies NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler vs. Kyle Freeland
This is a scary one since we have one team (Colorado) with the lowest projection for a first-inning run on the slate, while another (Philadelphia) has one of the stronger ones.
The Rockies boast a terrible offense and are taking on Zack Wheeler, which pretty much speaks for itself. Their single team NRFI is -600 at DraftKings, so I'm not worried about that one.
It's the Philadelphia side that poses some risk here, as the Phillies are pretty strong at the top of the lineup.
However, Rockies starter Kyle Freeland's numbers are somewhat skewed by pitching home games at Coors Field, and he was much better earlier in games.
With cold and windy conditions in Philly tonight, runs are likely hard to come by overall. However, I wouldn't fault anyone for hedging with the Phillies single-team YRFI at +195 or first-inning moneyline at +250.
