PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Pirates vs Astros
I’ve infrequently dabbled in the pitcher win markets this season, as a seemingly never-ending set of variables comes into play when assessing this market.
However, Tuesday's stars are aligned for the Astros and Hunter Brown.
After a very shaky start to his campaign, Brown has been dominant. He’s picked up the win in eight of his last nine starts, registering a 1.80 ERA. His 19% hard-hit rate allowed over that span leads all qualified pitchers by a wide margin.
Tonight, Brown will face off against a Pirates lineup that has been struggling mightily of late. Since the All-Star break, Pittsburgh bats are hitting .198 against right-handed pitching, with a .556 OPS and 57 wRC+.
On the flip side, Bailey Falter returns from a short stint on the injured list to start for the Pirates. Before his injury, Falter had been struggling, with a 6.23 ERA over his last six appearances. And he was shaky in his lone rehab start, allowing five hits and two runs in only three innings.
Falter is a pitch-to-contact hurler who doesn’t miss many bats (whiff and strikeout rates in the eighth and tenth percentile, respectively). The Astros are an excellent contact team with a .744 OPS against finesse pitchers this season.
I expect the Astros' offense to break through early, leading to innings from the Pirates' lower-leverage relievers. And while the Astros bullpen did blow the save on Monday, I’m confident the unit will rebound tonight.
I have the Astros with the advantage in almost every facet of tonight’s game, so I love this spot at plus-odds.
Pick: Hunter Brown To Record The Win (+120, bet365) | Play to (+105)
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