PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
On a surprisingly vast Monday MLB slate, I’m targeting the Brewers' offense to produce in their matchup versus the Braves.
The Brewers have hit well at home all season, racking up a 114 wRC+ and .756 OPS, both eighth-best among MLB lineups. And those numbers haven’t changed much recently – 112 wRC+ and .748 OPS over the last 30 days at home.
Even without Christian Yelich in the lineup, I love the Brew Crew's matchup tonight. They’ll face off against Grant Holmes, making his first major league start. As a starter in the minor leagues, Holmes has an ERA north of 4.50 over the past three seasons.
Holmes is likely in store for about four innings tonight, as he’s not fully stretched out. This means we could see the recently recalled Darius Vines (5.52 ERA in 89 2/3 combined innings pitched between AAA and MLB).
While Atlanta's bullpen has been a strength this season, their higher-leverage relievers have been used extensively over the last two series.
I also like the full-game team total of over 3.5 runs, but my preferred bet is on the first seven innings. This likely helps us avoid the elite back end of the Braves bullpen, led by Raisel Iglesias (1.86 ERA).
I project the Brewers to score their third run in the sixth inning tonight.
Pick: Brewers First Seven Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (-145, DraftKings)
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