PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB player prop picks of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Chris Bassitt Under 17.5 Outs (+110)
Orioles vs. Blue Jays | 7:07 p.m. ET
In his second season with the Blue Jays, Chris Bassitt hasn’t quite been the reliable starter we’ve come to expect. His ERA (4.02), xERA (4.30) and hard-hit rate (38.1%) are his worst outputs since 2016. As a result, I have a MLB player prop pick to bet tonight on Chris Bassitt.
He’s coming off a brutal July, where he remained under this line in four of his five outings while pitching to a 7.01 ERA. In his last start against the Orioles, his opponent tonight, he was roughed up for nine hits and five runs in only four innings.
Recency bias aside, the Orioles represent a tough matchup for Bassitt. The right-hander has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters, allowing a .817 OPS, .291 batting average and 7.2% K-BB%.
The Orioles' roster construction allows them to load their lineup with left-handed bats – I’m expecting seven southpaws today.
And no matter how you dissect the data, the Orioles' bats have been hot. Over the last 30 days against right-handed pitching in away games, the Orioles have registered a 130 wRC+ and .823 OPS.
After an off-day yesterday, the Blue Jays' bullpen should be fully available tonight, which includes three left-handed pitchers.
Against an Orioles' lineup that's torched him for a collective 1.083 OPS in 75 plate appearances, I project Bassitt only getting through 16 outs tonight.
