PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Reid Detmers Under 15.5 Pitching Outs -110
As the Angels cling to their slimming playoff hopes, starter Reid Detmers has struggled down the stretch. Over his last six starts, the lefty is pitching to a 10.30 ERA, while staying under this pitching outs line in five of those outings.
And overall, Detmers has failed to produce on the road all season. With a 6.70 ERA away from Angel Stadium, the southpaw has failed to clear five full innings in seven of his nine starts.
His struggles of late can be tied to his fastball. Over his last six starts, opponents are 18-for-39 — with seven home runs — off his four-seamer.
That won’t bode well against a Rangers offense that's sixth in weighted runs created per 100 four-seam fastballs seen this season.
It’s safe to say the Rangers' offense is good in general, especially against lefties. Texas ranks second in both wRC+ (130) and OPS (.833) against southpaws this season. And at home, those numbers bump up to 143 and .866, respectively.
However, the biggest element for this prop might just be Detmers pitching on four days of rest for the first time in his major league career (51 starts). While fatigue likely won’t be a factor (he only threw 48 pitches in his last start), the change in cadence could affect his rhythm.
Jaime Barria, whom the Angels have used to eat multiple innings, is rested in the bullpen for tonight as well.
With the variables of a tough road matchup and short rest colliding, there are multiple avenues for this bet to cash. I have Detmers projected at 14 outs tonight, as I’d take this bet up to -135.
