PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
If you’ve been following me (shameless plug: PropBetGuy in the Action App), you might have noticed that I will occasionally attack an MLB slate with a prop parlay. The board will always dictate where I find value, especially as it pertains to pitcher props.
Today is one of those days, as I have a two-leg parlay that I love.
Joe Ryan Under 1.5 Walks | Logan Webb 5+ Strikeouts
Twins vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET) | Reds vs. Giants (10:15 p.m. ET)
Starting with Joe Ryan, the Twins hurler is the epitome of a strike thrower. After ranking fourth amongst 100 qualified pitchers with a 68.6% strike percentage in 2023, Ryan is at 69% this season (per Baseball Reference).
And while some of this success is due to an elite chase rate (85th percentile this season), Ryan’s 48.7% zone percentage leads all qualified pitchers thus far in 2024 (per FanGraphs).
The results, as you’d expect, have led to a squeaky clean 1.33 walks per nine innings for the Twins ace. He’s stayed under this walk line in all seven starts, with only six free passes in 40.2 innings pitched.
The Blue Jays' walk rate of 8.4% against righties over the last 30 days is slightly below league average. They’ll likely have six righties in the lineup today, and Ryan has only issued two free passes in 76 plate appearances against righties.
Moving to Logan Webb, this is a great spot for the Giants hurler despite only reaching five strikeouts in four of his eight starts thus far.
The Reds' lineup has been dreadful against righties this season, and it hasn’t been much better of late (27.4% K% and a 59 wRC+ over the last two weeks against righties). 16 of 23 right-handed starters have notched at least five punch outs against Cincinnati this season.
Webb’s lower strikeout totals so far this season have seemingly been more of a product of the tougher lineups he’s faced. And he’s been dominant at home dating back to last season — 2.26 ERA in 2023, 0.82 ERA through three starts in 2024.
He should cruise through at least six innings, which provides more than enough opportunity for him to clear this line.
