PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
With another full MLB slate on tap for tonight, I have two juicy MLB player props that I’m loving and combining to create yet another Friday prop parlay.
Heliot Ramos to Record a Hit | Tyler Anderson Under 18.5 Outs
Giants vs. Reds (7:10 p.m. ET) | Mets vs. Angels (9:38 p.m. ET)
We'll start with Heliot Ramos. The first-time All-Star has broken through in a major way this season. With a .289 batting average and .848 OPS, he’s led a balanced Giants offensive attack.
Ramos has particularly excelled against lefties, with 29 hits in 68 at bats (.426). And tonight, he’ll likely register two-to-three plate appearances against Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott.
Ramos picked up two hits in two at-bats against Abbott earlier this season. And even though the Giants outfielder has worse road splits (.266 batting average), Great American Ballpark plays as the second-most favorable stadium for hitters, per Ballpark Pal.
On a hot, humid night, the ball should be flying off the bat of Ramos, who owns the third-highest hard-hit rate off of left-handed pitching as is (minimum 60 plate appearances).
Meanwhile, Angels All-Star Tyler Anderson has actually cleared this line (18.5) more often than not this season, recording at least 19 outs in 11-of-21 games.
But there are plenty of strong indicators for the under to hit tonight.
Firstly, and most importantly, the Mets mash against lefties. With a 120 wRC+ (tied for first) and a .769 OPS (fourth), they’ve held 27-of-30 opposing lefties under this line.
And against Anderson’s two primary pitches (his four-seam fastball and changeup), the Mets rank second in weighted runs above average per 100 pitches against each (all data per FanGraphs).
Anderson has stayed under this line in four of his six starts against teams in the top 10 of wRC+ against lefties. And with an xERA at 4.17 — compared to his actual ERA of 2.96 — he’s been a strong regression candidate all season.
I have Anderson projected at 17 outs tonight.
