PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB player prop picks of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Athletics Over 2.5 Runs F7 Innings (-105)
Athletics vs. Mets | 7:10 p.m. ET
If I told you that since July 1 the No. 1 team in wRC+ (154) and OPS (.900) against left-handed pitching was the Oakland Athletics, would you believe me?
Well, whether or not I’ve earned your trust, it’s surprisingly true (per FanGraphs).
The A’s have cleared this line in the last nine games against lefty starters. And the quality of the pitchers they’ve faced is quite impressive: Chris Sale, Cole Ragans, Ranger Suarez, Tyler Anderson (twice) and Robbie Ray all have fallen victim to Oakland’s offense.
Today, the A’s have an optimal matchup against David Peterson. The Mets starter has been lucky as his xERA of 5.42 is two full runs higher than his actual ERA of 3.34.
The main indicator for Peterson’s regression is his unsustainable 81.5% strand rate — a full 7% over both his career average and the 2024 MLB average.
With the Athletics' strong walk rate and OBP against left-handed pitching, I’m trusting that the traffic on the base paths should be aplenty (especially given Peterson’s 1.42 WHIP).
I have the Athletics projected to clear this line by the sixth inning tonight.
Pick: Athletics Over 2.5 Runs F7 Innings (-105 at DraftKings) | Playable at Over 1.5 Runs F5 Innings
Nationals Over 2.5 Runs F7 Innings (-135)
Nationals vs. Orioles | 6:35 p.m. ET
Another non-playoff contender swinging a hot bat is the Nationals. Over the last two weeks, against right-handed pitching, Washington has registered a 119 wRC+ and .777 OPS.
Rookie James Wood has solidified the middle of the order, with a .370 batting average and 1.093 OPS over the last 15 days. CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia and Juan Yepez have all heated up recently as well, and Andres Chaparro had a splashy 3-for-4 major league debut yesterday.
Today, the Nationals will square off against Orioles righty Dean Kremer. Performing like a fringe MLB starter, Kremer’s xERA (5.08) and barrel rate (10.8%) rank in the 11th and seventh percentile, respectively.
Overall, opponents have cleared this line in seven of the last nine Kremer starts. I expect the Nationals to make that eight-of-10 tonight.
