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Walker Buehler, Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
| Prop | Walker Buehler Under 5.5 Ks |
| Matchup | Pirates vs. Dodgers |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| Books Available | DraftKings |
Walker Buehler, one of the top hurlers in the game, is amid another ace-worthy campaign for the NL-leading Dodgers. The right-hander is 6-1 with a 2.91 ERA — and the Dodgers have won seven of Buehler’s nine starts.
While it’s never fun to fade a brand-name pitcher, there's plenty of data to back the under.
First, Buehler has stayed under this line in seven of his nine starts, leading to a 19% strikeout rate — by far the lowest of his six MLB seasons (his previous low was last season’s 26%).
Digging deeper, Buehler’s spin rate is down significantly from last season, including a 200+ RPM drop on his 4-seam fastball, cutter and curveball. So, while his velocity has remained consistent, his called + swinging strike rate is down almost 4% from last season.
Replicating their 2021 performance, the Pirates don’t swing and miss much — their whiff rate is the third-lowest in baseball. And while the Pirates' K% is above league-average, Buehler’s high in-zone swing percentage should elicit plenty of swings and contact.
It could get uncomfortable, just because Buehler has the potential to pitch deep into the game. However, the Pirates' lefty-heavy lineup should help to keep his strikeout total down.
I have Buehler projected at less than five strikeouts tonight.
Pick: Walker Buehler Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105 | Play to -115)
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