PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) Over 16.5 Outs -115
| Matchup | Cubs vs. Mets |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
After consecutive down seasons, Cubs' stalwart Kyle Hendricks has rebounded nicely in 2023. Armed with a 3.98 ERA, the 10-year veteran has been key to the Cubs catapulting into the National League playoff picture.
And today, I’ll be backing The Professor on his outs line.
After a delayed start to his season due to injury, Hendricks has cleared this pitching outs line in nine of his last 12 starts. While he’s not going to miss many bats with an 8% swinging strike rate, the Cubs righty is a maestro in minimizing hard contact.
Per Fangraphs, Hendricks’ 27.2% hard hit rate is the fourth lowest amongst 117 starting pitchers with at least 70 innings accrued this season.
Of equal importance, Hendricks is back to inducing ground balls at a high rate as well. At 46% he ranks 25th out of 117. This should play well today, as Hendricks’ opponent, the Mets, collectively have a dreadful .644 OPS against ground ball pitchers this season.
Plus, the Mets offense has been bad. Over the last two weeks against righties, the Mets have registered an 88 wRC+ and a .666 OPS. With Tommy Pham and Mark Canha jettisoned out via trade, and Starling Marte on the injured list, the Mets lineup is a shell of what fans were expecting this season.
With their current roster construction, it’s likely that we’ll see six left-handed hitters in the Mets batting order. That plays into Hendricks better split, as he’s allowed a .633 OPS and .273 wOBA this season.
Overall, I don’t foresee much resistance for Hendricks today. I have the longest-tenured Cub slated to finish six full innings with relative ease tonight, and I would play this like up to over 17.5 outs at +100.
