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Ian Anderson Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120)
| Prop | Ian Anderson Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120) |
| Matchup | Dodgers vs. Braves |
| Time | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| Books Available |  |
We’ve got a fun weekend of baseball ahead of us with several intriguing series matchups – one of which is a rematch of last season’s NLCS between the Dodgers and Braves. Tonight, Ian Anderson toes the slab for Atlanta, and I’m looking to fade him in what should be a tough spot.
Anderson has had an up-and-down third year in the big leagues, pitching to a 4.35 ERA, and a 5.84 ERA at home. He’s struggled mightily the third time through the batting order, allowing a Yordan Alvarez-like OPS of 1.100. The Braves bullpen has been one of baseball’s best (3.09 ERA – fifth-lowest), and consequently, Anderson has seen quick hooks when he gets in trouble deeper into games.
I also like the Dodgers to drive up Anderson’s pitch count. The right-hander throws an average of 3.99 pitches per plate appearance, which is 25th-highest out of 112 qualified starters, and his Strike Percentage is the 10th-lowest (61.4%). As a team, the Dodgers have the lowest Chase Rate in baseball, which has led them to see the second-most pitches per at bat.
This means Anderson will have to throw more strikes to keep his pitch count down. But if he does, he should be hit hard by a Dodgers team that has the highest OPS against righties (.776) and the fourth-highest Hard Hit Rate.
It’s a tough matchup for Anderson tonight – I have him only finishing five full innings.
Pick: Ian Anderson Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120) | Play to (-140)
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