PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Tyler Wells Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
| Matchup | Orioles vs. Rays |
| Time | 12:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
In a rotation filled with unproven arms, Wells has been a revelation for the Orioles. In addition to his solid 3.20 ERA (and 3.47 xERA), Wells has racked up 82 strikeouts in 81.2 innings.
He’s been especially K-happy of late, notching at least seven punchouts in six of his last seven starts. Over that span, Wells’ swinging strike rate (13.3%) ranks 20th out of 86 starting pitchers, and his called + swinging strike rate of 30.1% ranks 12th.
Wells has tweaked his changeup, which includes added movement (both horizontal drop and vertical break) caused by an added 150 RPM of spin rate. Showing more confidence in the pitch, the third-year Major Leaguer already has 22 strikeouts with his changeup this season after racking up 27 Ks in more than 160 MLB innings previously.
In an afternoon matinee, Wells will face off against the Rays. Despite boasting a high-powered offense, Tampa has been strikeout prone against righties. This season at home, the Rays’ 23% strikeout rate is the seventh-highest in baseball.
I expect Wells to continue to fill the K column today, powered by his changeup. I have Wells slated to record his sixth strikeout in the fifth inning.
Pick: Tyler Wells Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120 · Play to -135) |
Brady Singer Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125)
| Matchup | Royals vs. Tigers |
| Time | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
It’s been a tough season for Singer and the Royals. The default ace of Kansas City’s rotation has looked like anything but a frontline starter with a 6.33 ERA and 5.93 xERA.
And when I say he’s been hit hard, I’m not exaggerating. His hard-hit percentage of 55.9% currently sits in the first percentile of pitchers. Coupled with a career-low groundball rate (44.6%) and a career-high barrel percentage (10.8%), you can see why Singer has already relented 84 hits in just 69.2 innings thus far.
The Tigers offense has quietly been competent lately, with a 114 wRC+ and .779 OPS against righties over the last two weeks.
Singer has gone under this line in 10 of his 14 starts, including a 3.2-inning outing against Detroit where he was lit up for seven hits and five runs. I expect more of the same today, as I have the former top pick failing to pitch past the fifth inning.
Pick: Singer Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125 · Play to -140)
