PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Zack Wheeler Over 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130)
Phillies vs. Brewers | 8:00 p.m. ET
We’ve reached September, which in baseball parlance is synonymous with the final push for the postseason. The Phillies and Brewers both will be using the month to position themselves for a playoff run, as they start a new series in Milwaukee today.
Zack Wheeler will be on the bump for the Phillies, and I’ll be backing him to record more than 17.5 pitching outs.
The Phillies ace is no stranger to finishing six full innings; it’s a mark the Phillies ace has reached in 19 of his last 24 starts, including nine in a row. On the road this season, he’s pitched to a 3.40 ERA.
Wheeler’s bread and butter pitch is his four-seam fastball, which he throws 42% of the time, and has held opponents to a .201 average against it. Clocking in around 96 miles per hour with an average spin rate exceeding 2,500 RPM, the pitch rates at 113 stuff+, which is the eighth highest mark in the big leagues.
That’s pertinent today, because the Brewers are rank 26th this season in weighted runs created per 100 four-seam fastballs. And overall, in August, the Brew Crew only registered an 86 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
The drawback to facing the Brewers is their propensity to push pitch counts (Milwaukee sees 4.01 pitches per plate appearance as a team – the second highest mark in baseball). But Wheeler should be able to combat that with his 65.6% strike rate, which ranks him in the top third amongst qualified starting pitchers.
Overall, it’s a bet I don’t want to overthink: Wheeler consistently hits this line, and he’s facing a Brewers offense that has been subpar of late. I’d play this to -145.
