PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB player prop picks of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
PropBetGuy's Two-Leg MLB Player Prop Parlay for Friday, Aug. 23
- Chris Sale (ATL) 7+ Strikeouts
- Bobby Miller (LAD) Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Parlay Odds: +123 (Caesars)
Chris Sale 7+ Strikeouts
Nationals vs Braves | 7:20 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
The Chris Sale reclamation project rolls on. The Cy Young front-runner has been on a strikeout tear all season, reaching at least seven in 18 of his 23 starts. This includes a stretch of ten of his last twelve appearances.
He’s coming off three straight outings where he reached double-digit punch-outs. While it might be difficult to make it four in a row tonight against the Nationals, he should have no issue clearing this alt-total for us.
While the Nationals have a lower average strikeout rate against lefties of late (17.2% over the last 30 days), you can throw averages out the window when analyzing an outlier such as Sale (97th percentile in K%). Hard-throwing left-handers like Blake Snell and Nick Lodolo have cleared this line against Washington since the All-Star Break.
I have Sale closer to eight strikeouts tonight.
Bobby Miller Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Rays vs Dodgers | 10:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
I’m pairing two of my favorite juiced MLB prop lines on this fine Friday to form a more palpable parlay at plus odds.
Bobby Miller under 5.5 strikeouts
One of the Dodgers' disappointing developments this season has been Bobby Miller's performance. The former top prospect has only pitched in eight games at the MLB level, registering an 8.02 ERA (6.72 xERA).
In 55 1/3 combined innings between AAA and the majors, Miller’s strikeout rate is below average at 17%, and his walk rate sits at 14%. He’s stayed below this strikeout line in 11 of his 13 starts between the two levels.
He’s a hard thrower, but his average velocity on all his pitches is noticeably 1-2 MPH below what they were during his impressive rookie season last year.
I won’t sugar-coat his matchup tonight against the Rays, as they have struggled to hit right-handed pitching of late while striking out at an above-average rate (66 wRC+ and a 25.1% K% over the last 14 days). However, they should be able to drive Miller’s pitch count up, as they average 4.00 pitches per plate appearance (third highest in baseball).
With the Dodgers coming off an off-day on Thursday and earning another one on Monday, I expect the bullpen to be used liberally throughout the weekend. I have Miller projected slightly below five strikeouts tonight.
