PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB player prop picks of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Edward Cabrera Under 15.5 Outs
Padres vs Marlins | 7:10 p.m. ET
The enigmatic Cabrera has failed to clear this line in nine of his eleven MLB starts this season, pitching to a 5.96 ERA (4.59 xERA).
The issue with Cabrera has always been his control. Amongst the 324 pitchers with at least 40 innings this season, Cabrera ranks 315th in zone rate (per Statcast, via Fangraphs). He would have the third-highest pitches per plate appearance (4.19) and fifth-lowest strike percentage (60.7%) if qualified.
The Padres do not swing and miss much, with the lowest whiff rate in baseball. While that does lead to fewer pitches per plate appearance, the offense has been rolling. Over the last 14 days versus righties, the Padres have accrued a .856 OPS with a 144 wRC+.
When he’s not striking batters out, Cabrera has struggled with contact. Among qualified pitchers, he ranks in the third percentile in the hard-hit rate allowed and the second percentile in the barrel rate allowed.
This line is priced like a plus-matchup for the Marlins starter, but I don’t see it that way. I have Cabrera projected to be pulled at 14 outs.
Pick: Edward Cabrera Under 15.5 Outs (-115, DraftKings) | Play to 15.5 (-135)
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Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Reds vs Brewers | 8:10 p.m. ET
I’m targeting the dynamic De La Cruz in his matchup against the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers.
De La Cruz has been on a tear, hitting .316 since July 1, with a combined 72 hits, runs and RBI in the 29 games he’s played over that span.
The dynamic shortstop has been better this season on the road (.278 batting average, .881 OPS) and against right-handed pitching (.298 average, .950 OPS). He’ll be positioned in both splits tonight to start the game against Brewers righty Aaron Civale.
Civale hasn’t been particularly good this season, with a 5.14 ERA (and 5.40 ERA in the five starts for the Brewers since coming over via trade). He also struggles against lefties, with a .271 batting average and an .829 OPS allowed.
De La Cruz has never faced Civale, but it is a plus matchup for the All-Star. Civale primarily throws a cutter (42.5% of pitches), curveball (21.2%) and sinker (16.3%) to left-handed hitters. Against right-handed pitching, De La Cruz is a combined 34 for 87 (.390) off those three pitches this season, with eight home runs.
Overall, the sophomore sensation has cleared this line in nine of his last 15 road games. I expect him to add to that total tonight.
Pick: Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120, DraftKings) | Play to 1.5 (-135)
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