UFC 311 Odds, Predictions: Expert Picks, Previews for All 13 Fights

Check out the latest UFC 311 odds and betting lines with my predictions for all 13 fights for Saturday afternoon's pay-per-view at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif.

Below, I look at the latest UFC 311 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card.

Here's how to watch UFC 311 today: The preliminary card streams on ESPN+ at 6:00 p.m. ET (3:00 p.m. PT), and then the main card is on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET (PPV cost: $79.99).

UFC 311 Predictions, Odds

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And after looking at the UFC 311 odds, today's event is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 311 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

UFC 311 odds are as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 311 with our DraftKings promo code.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 311 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 13 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

UFC 311 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside the distance.

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter

Projection: Tagir Ulanbekov (69.4%)

At age 33 (turning 34 in July), Tagir Ulanbekov is on the wrong side of the age curve for the 125-pound division (average age 31) and has more canceled bouts (eight) than completed fights (six) in the UFC.

Tagir is a large body for the flyweight division and struggles to make weight, leading to lackluster cardio in the third round of his fights.

Carpenter is five years younger, unbeaten, in his physical prime, and from a reputable gym (The MMA Lab). However, he needs to overcome a four-inch reach discrepancy at distance against a more skilled opponent.

While I show value on Carpenter's moneyline pre-fight (projected +227) and would take +250 or better, you might find a better live price after Round 1 — or midway through Round 2 — before Carpenter takes over with a superior gas tank in the back half of the fight.

The betting market expects this fight to reach a decision (lined -225, near 70% implied). Ulanbekov often fails to separate from his opponents on the scorecards, with a negative strike differential (-0.41 per minute) for his career.

And the wrestling-based fighters on Saturday's card won't get as much scoring deference for empty takedowns as they typically do in Abu Dhabi or the UAE (where Ulanbekov scored a split-decision win).

Bets

• Clayton Carpenter (+265, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to 250
• Clayton Carpenter Live after Round 1

Ricky Turcios vs. Benardo Sopaj

Projection: Bernado Sopaj (77.3%)

This fight was initially booked in November, but Turcios pulled out after weigh-ins due to illness. Sopaj was a -375 favorite (79% implied) at the time of cancellation and currently sits at a more reasonable -245 price tag (71% implied) as of Friday.

Sopaj impressed in his short-notice UFC debut against Vinicius Oliveira last March, leading on the scorecards after 10 minutes before tiring out and suffering a brutal knockout loss in the third round. Oliveira flattered that loss with his subsequent win over Ricky Simon, who could not ground the Brazilian.

Turcios is the longer man (3" taller, 5" reach advantage) in this fight and offers plenty of striking output, but Sopaj should have a clear wrestling advantage and will look to control this contest on the mat from top position.

Sopaj has a well-rounded skillset and serious potential. He's seven years younger than Turcios, the more serious prospect from a promotional standpoint, and he should be a stronger athlete for the duration of the contest.

I set Sopaj as a -341 favorite and feel that the original pricing for this matchup was closer to correct; I'd lay the juice on the favorite up to -305 or use him as a parlay piece to -330.

I also show slight value on Sopaj by KO/TKO (projected +362, listed +390) or inside the distance (projected +223, listed +230), depending upon the book. I'd consider using either for round-robin purposes.

Bets

• Benardo Sopaj (-250, 0.25u) at BetMGM; bet to -305
• Parlay (-145, 0.1u) at FanDuel: Benardo Sopaj (-260) & Jailton Almeida (-450)

Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov

Projection: Rinya Nakamura (82.9%)

A former U23 world champion, Rinya Nakamura is among the best technical freestyle wrestlers in the bantamweight division and has shown dominance against each of his UFC opponents, spending 75% of his octagon time in control positions.

Still, Nakamura needs to refine his striking technique or develop a more lethal submission game to grab the attention of matchmakers and ascend toward title contention within the sport's deepest division.

Nakamura should have a significant grappling advantage over Muin Gafurov, justifying his substantial favoritism.

"Tajik" does have the tools to finish the fight — power in his hands, a dynamic kicking game, and a guillotine to slap on a wrestler — but his gas tank will drain by the halfway point of the second round.

Gafurov seems relatively durable on his feet, but Nakamura should get to dominant positions on the mat and potentially finish a tiring opponent — after drowning him with wrestling — in the second half of the fight.

I show value on Nakamura to win by submission (projected +474, listed +500) and would consider betting his odds to win in Round 2 (+650) or Round 3 (+1000).

Additionally, Nakamura is a live target if he falls behind.

Bets

• Rinya Nakamura wins by Submission (+500, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +500
• Rinya Nakamura Live after Round 1

Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez

Projection: Karol Rosa (73.5%)

Perez is an extremely popular underdog selection this week; she's getting picked to win the fight 59% of the time, on average, compared to implied odds of 32.8%.

As a result, I show value on the favorite, Rosa, up to -251 (71.5% implied) as a straight bet or -270 (73% implied) as a parlay piece.

Rosa offers incredible output (9.06 to 4.24 strikes landed per minute) and a superior gas tank. I view her as the better minute-winner across a 15-minute fight, and I wouldn't rule out an attritional stoppage in Round 3 (Rosa Wins in Round 3, +2000) if she can shut down her opponent's grappling.

Perez has shown improvements in recent fights while wrestling proactively. In her past 49 minutes inside the cage, she has landed 20 takedowns on 38 attempts.

Still, those fights came against relatively low-level opponents, and I view Rosa as the better grappler overall and the wrestling exchanges as neutral at worst.

Moreover, while Rosa has struggled on the bottom against better wrestlers, Perez has been unable to consolidate her takedowns for significant stretches (hence, attempting nearly one per 90 seconds in her past four fights).

Rosa's limited power — and lack of finishing upside — lowers her ceiling in any matchup. This fight is also the most heavily lined on the card to see the scorecards, but Rosa should have double the strike volume as Perez across a 15-minute fight.

Bet Rosa pre-fight, add more live after Round 1 if she falls behind, and consider playing her odds to win in Round 3 (+2000) as a dart throw.

Bets

• Karol Rosa (-245, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to -251
• Karol Rosa Live after Round 1

Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira

Projection: Grant Dawson (64.7%)

Diego Ferreira, who turns 40 on Saturday, has turned back the clock in his past two performances with knockout wins over Michael Johnson and Mateusz Rebecki — the latter as a +360 underdog — on the heels of a three-fight losing streak.

The Brazilian has some decided advantages as an underdog against Grant Dawson, a back-take specialist who is nine years his junior. Ferreira is the bigger man (2-inch reach advantage) and the much better striker (+1.75 to +0.22 differential per minute), but Dawson is the better wrestler with superior cardio.

Ferreira has only spent 13% of his octagon time controlling opponents but has been held for 20% of his cage time. Conversely, Dawson has controlled opponents for 67% of his cage time and only spent 7% getting controlled by his opposition.

Still, Ferreira has good jiu-jitsu and will scramble from the bottom for at least the first couple of rounds before tiring. If he can get to striking range, he'll have opportunities to close the show against Dawson, who has shown terrible striking defense (45%) and durability concerns.

I'm more interested in betting Ferreira to win inside the distance (projected +323, listed +450) than his moneyline, which I'd play at +200 or better.

Alternatively, I'd consider betting Dawson to win in Rounds 2 (+750) or 3 (+1000) and look to live bet the favorite at a better price after Round 1; the takedowns should come more quickly as the 40-year-old Ferreira tires.

Bets

• Diego Ferreira (+210, 0.15u) at ESPNBet; bet to +200
• Diego Ferreira wins Inside the Distance (+450, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +350
• Grant Dawson Live after Round 1

Bogdan Guskov vs. Billy Elekana

Projection: Bogdan Guskov (71.9%)

The betting market hasn't been high on Guskov, who closed as an underdog (+154, +120, and +165, respectively) and ultimately seemed outclassed at points in his three UFC fights despite a 2-1 record.

Guskov was a surprising betting favorite against Johnny Walker. Still, the line has moved even further in his direction against short-notice replacement Billy Elekana, a PFL veteran and the more well-rounded fighter.

Elekana has never been finished (his lone loss was a split decision), and he has the grappling upside in this matchup. Guskov isn't exceptionally durable and has a known grappling deficiency.

Guskov should be the more powerful puncher, and he retains the finishing upside against any opponent. However, this line could be flipped if Elekana pursues a wrestling-oriented game plan and lands takedowns from the outset.

Bet the underdog pre-fight to +275 and wait to add more live after Round 1, most likely if Guskov lands a knockdown but swings himself out unsuccessfully trying to finish.

In the prop market, I'd consider Elekana to win inside the distance (projected +474, listed +500) and potentially in Round 2 (+1700) or Round 3 (+2500) after weathering an early storm.

Bets

• Billy Elekana (+310, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to +275
• Billy Elekana Live after Round 1

Zachary Reese vs. Azamat Bekoev

Projection: Azamat Bekoev (54.5%)

Reese was initially scheduled to face Sedriques Dumas (as a -275 favorite) but will get LFA middleweight champion Azamat Bekoev instead on short notice.

Reese is the bigger man (4 inches taller, 5-inch reach advantage), seemingly the more potent finisher and proved he has 15-minute cardio in his recent win over Jose Medina, landing more than 100 significant strikes for the fight and completing four takedown attempts in the third round.

Although that fight was seemingly a mismatch, Reese, who previously fit into the quick finish or bust archetype, upgraded his ceiling by showing average cardio.

I'd give Bekoev a greater chance of winning this matchup on a whole camp, but the short notice booking could neutralize the cardio dynamic. Reese is an extraordinarily chaotic and unorthodox opponent, and I'd expect him to remain the more dangerous fighter throughout as the bigger man.

I'd expect Bekoev to look to wrestle and get on top of Reese early. Still, Reese has a lethal guard game and is happy to hunt for submissions off his back. Moreover, I haven't been impressed with Bekoev's striking and view Reese as the likelier of the pair to land the more impactful damage at a distance.

Bet Reese to +130 and consider his inside-the-distance prop at +225 or higher (projected +201).

Additionally, consider betting the Under 2.5 Rounds to -160 or the Fight to End Inside the Distance (projected -219, listed -175) at -200 or better.

Bets

• Zachary Reese (+164, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +130
• Zachary Reese wins Inside the Distance (+275, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +225
• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-170, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to -200

Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos

Projection: Payton Talbott (87.8%)

Talbott has potentially overtaken Bo Nickal as the most exciting prospect in the UFC. The undefeated 26-year-old striker has drawn comparison to Sean O'Malley with his size for 135 pounds, fluid technique and outrageous output. He lands 8.4 significant strikes per minute, including his contender series bout.

Talbott's moneyline will close north of -1000 for the second consecutive fight, but Raoni Barcelos is far more decorated than recent opponent Yanis Ghemmouri, who Talbott dispatched in 19 seconds.

Barcelos is a highly well-rounded fighter, including Brazilian national wrestling and Nogi grappling titles, but he's 37 years old and at a severe size (3-inch discrepancy in height and reach) and speed disadvantage in this matchup.

If Barcelos can get the fight to the ground, he could potentially test Talbott's submission defense, but that's the only way I see the Brazilian pulling off a significant upset.

As I regularly cite, when there is at least a decade in age between MMA opponents, the younger fighters have won 72.3% of the time at average odds of -140 (58.5% implied), nearly 14% above expectation.

If there's any value on this fight, it's on Talbott to win by decision (projected +267, listed +320) or the fight to go to decision (projected +210, listed +240). Still, given the age discrepancy and Talbott's potential to perform as a statistical outlier, I'm happy to pass.

Bets

• Pass

Kevin Holland vs. Reiner de Ridder

Projection: Reiner de Ridder (50.9%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out Billy Ward's full Kevin Holland vs. Reiner de Ridder preview.

Saturday's main card opener appears to be a binary matchup between former two-division ONE FC champion Reiner de Ridder and fan favorite Kevin Holland.

Holland has struggled against more physical competition, particularly at Middleweight. I'd expect de Ridder – who also competed for Heavyweight gold in ONE –  to control the fight in the clinch, land takedowns, and consolidate top position early.

Still, while Holland has lackluster takedown defense (54%) and struggles to get off his back against more muscular opposition (he's spent 33% of his cage time getting controlled by opponents), he has both the defensive jiu-jitsu to keep himself in the fight – and the offensive ability to threaten opponents if they make a mistake in a scramble.

Holland should have distinct advantages in speed, technique, accuracy, and output at striking range – landing more than six strikes per minute at a distance throughout his career (+1.46 differential). Additionally, de Ridder's UFC debut against Gerald Meerschaert left me underwhelmed by his athleticism and overall skillset.

Still, you can't ignore Holland's historical issues against proactive grapplers or opponents with a physicality edge.

I project slight value on Holland as an underdog, but I'd want +110 or higher to fire at his moneyline. You may find a better price live after Round 1.

Alternatively, consider betting Holland to win in Round 2 (+700) or Round 3 (+1100) pre-fight, considering the likely striker vs. grappler cardio dynamic.

Additionally, I show value on de Ridder to win by KO/TKO (projected +833, listed +1400) or inside the distance (projected +203, listed +275).

I prefer to bet the Under 2.5 Rounds (-146) to -165 or the Fight to End Inside the Distance to -210 (projected -232, listed -185) in a binary fight and wait for a live entry on Holland the first time he gets up from a takedown.

Bets

• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-185, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -210
• Kevin Holland Live after Round 1

Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac

Projection: Jailton Almeida (84.1%) 

Jailton Almeida has a severe wrestling and grappling advantage over the heavyweight division, but he has significant question marks concerning his gas tank and durability. That's clear by his nine takedowns in 5 minutes before an awkward TKO loss against Curtis Blaydes.

Almeida, who could still compete at light heavyweight if he desired to make the weight cut, has spent 88% of his fight time in control position, compared to Spivac, a fellow grappler, at 37%.

Spivac hasn't been put on the bottom often, but he is a far slower athlete than Almeida. The Brazilian should be able to do what he wants when both fighters are fresh.

Spivac may be the superior striker, but he's unlikely to find opportunities to express that advantage unless he can deny takedowns or scramble back to his feet after getting put on his back. Jailton rarely waits long before shooting on opponents.

I project value on Almeida up to -450 as a straight bet or -500 as a parlay piece, but I'd probably prefer his odds to win in Round 1 (+170) or the Under 1.5 Rounds (-115).

Bets

• Under 1.5 Rounds (-115, 0.25u) at ESPN BET; bet to -125

 Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill

Projection: Jamahal Hill (59.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out John Lanfranca's full Jamahal Hill vs. Jiri Prochazka preview.

Jamahal Hill opened as the underdog in this matchup but has moved more than 8% implied probability toward -140 as of writing.

I projected Hill as a 59% favorite (-146 implied) and would bet the American at -135 or better. Hill is now 18 months removed from his achilles surgery, with an additional nine months to recover since his knockout loss against Alex Pereira.

Hill is the better boxer and the more efficient striker in this fight (+3.81 to +0.34 differential per minute at distance), and I view him as the more durable athlete with better cardio and output. Prochazka has gotten hurt or knocked down in nearly all his UFC bouts and fought a bit passively in his recent loss against Pereira.

Prochazka is the better kicker — and the more dynamic striker — and both fighters are careless defensively. Prochazka leaves his hands low and defends just 39% of opposing strikes, while Hill's poor footwork has led to his defending just 46% of opposing strikes.

Prochazka is the better submission grappler, but Hill may have the wrestling advantage and I expect him to keep the fight standing.

The pendulum for Hill continues to swing from overrated to underrated and back again. I think he's an underrated defensive grappler, and his physical gifts and boxing technique provide an extremely high floor in each fight.

Prochazka tends to force a finish in each of his bouts, and I expect this fight to end by finish more often than the odds suggest (projected -321, listed -250). The Unders: 2.5 Rounds (-172) and 1.5 Rounds (+123) are both enticing.

I'll likely take some Hill moneyline and Under. Still, you can alternatively play Hill by KO/TKO (projected +152, listed +190) or inside the distance (projected +131, listed +165) or use those props for round-robin purposes.

Bets

• Jamahal Hill (-120, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to -135
• Under 2.5 Rounds (-172, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -200

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

Projection: Umar Nurmagomedov (68.6%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out Billy Ward's full Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedv preview.

Merab Dvalishvili remains one-of-one regarding his pace inside the Octagon, attempting nearly 70 strikes and 10 takedowns per 5 minutes at a distance against his opposition.

I'm surprised to find Dvalishvili, one of the best pure minute winners in the promotion's history, as this significant an underdog for his first title defense. I thought the opening odds around +150 were closer to fair, and the line has moved back in from its peak price of +240.

Nurmagedov has the skills to win this fight: excellent wrestling, a more refined striking game, and superior submission skills. However, he'll need to match Merab's physicality and intensity for 25 minutes, with this bout at 70% implied to reach the scorecards.

Dvalishvili tends to be overaggressive and gets hurt early in his matchups, and I see Nurmagomedv potentially taking a big lead with a knockdown.

Still, neither fighter is used to being on the back foot, and I'm curious to see how both respond to counter-grappling their opponent rather than initiating takedowns and working from control positions (Dvalishvili has spent 88% of his grappling time in control positions, while Nurmagomedv is at 97%).

Nurmagomedv has a speed advantage both on the feet and in the scrambles. I'd expect that differential to prove significant when Dvalishvili attempts to escape from the bottom and get off his back or tries to prevent Nurmagomedv from locking in a body triangle.

Still, I expect both men's wrestling to neutralize, leading to more of a kickboxing match between two grapplers, where Dvalishvili could outpace any opponent. I'd have to give Dvalishvili a cardio advantage in the later rounds, so consider a live entry on Dvalishvili after Round 2 or 3.

Pre-fight, bet Dvalishvili on the moneyline to +220 and consider a poke at his decision odds (projected +279, listed +350) at +300 or better.

Bets

• Merab Dvalishvili (+225, 0.4u) at FanDuel; bet to +220
• Merab Dvalishvili wins by decision (+350, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +300
• Merab Dvalishvili Live after Round 2 or Round 3

Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano

Projection: Islam Makhachev (88.8%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out my full Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano preview.

In short, given the stylistic matchup, I don't project value on either side of the moneyline or the total, although I generally lean to the Over 1.5 Rounds (-135).

Still, I do project value on Makhachev by KO/TKO (projected +135, listed +190), which I would favor over his submission prop and bet to +145.

Bets

• Islam Makhachev wins by KO/TKO (+190, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +145

Sean Zerillo's UFC 311 Picks & Predictions

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Moneyline Bets

• Clayton Carpenter (+265, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to 250
• Benardo Sopaj (-250, 0.25u) at BetMGM; bet to -305
• Karol Rosa (-245, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to -251
• Diego Ferreira (+210, 0.15u) at ESPNBet; bet to +200
• Billy Elekana (+310, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to +275
• Zachary Reese (+164, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +130
• Jamahal Hill (-120, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to -135
• Merab Dvalishvili (+225, 0.4u) at FanDuel; bet to +220

Prop Bets and Totals

• Rinya Nakamura wins by Submission (+500, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +500
• Diego Ferreira wins Inside the Distance (+450, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +350
• Zachary Reese wins Inside the Distance (+275, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +225
• Zachary Reese / Azamat Bekoev, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-170, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to -200
• Kevin Holland / Reiner de Ridder, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-185, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -210
• Jailton Almeida / Serghei Spivac, Under 1.5 Rounds (-115, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to -125
• Jamahal Hill / Jiri Prochazka, Under 2.5 Rounds (-172, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -200
• Merab Dvalishvili wins by decision (+350, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +300
• Islam Makhachev wins by KO/TKO (+190, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +145

Parlays

• Parlay (-145, 0.1u) at FanDuel: Benardo Sopaj (-260) & Jailton Almeida (-450)

Live Bets

• Clayton Carpenter Live after Round 1
• Rinya Nakamura Live after Round 1
• Karol Rosa Live after Round 1
• Grant Dawson Live after Round 1
• Billy Elekana Live after Round 1
• Kevin Holland Live after Round 1
• Merab Dvalishvili Live after Round 2 or Round 3