Check out my Islam Makhachev vs. Renato predictions, picks, and odds for UFC 311 on Saturday, January 18, with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC will head to the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif., for a 14-fight card featuring a lightweight title bout between current champion Islam Makhachev and No. 10 contender Renato Moicano.
Makhachev was initially scheduled to face Arman Tsarukyan in a rematch from 2019. However, the top lightweight contender pulled out with a back injury, and Moicano upgraded from a main card slot with Beneil Dariush to world title contention.
Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano Odds
| Makhachev Odds | -1200 |
| Moicano Odds | +750 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-135 / +100) |
| Location | Intuit Dome, Los Angeles |
| Bout Time | 12:30 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 311 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 311 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Moicano enters on a four-fight winning streak following a loss in his first five-round fight against Rafael dos Anjos or RDA (also on short notice).
Makhachev will look for his fourth consecutive title defense and hopes to extend his unbeaten streak to 15.
Here's my Makhachev vs. Moicano pick and prediction.
Makhachev vs. Moicano Preview: Tale of the Tape
| Makhachev | Moicano | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 26-1 | 20-5-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:34 | 9:27 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 72" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/27/1991 | 5/21/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.65 | 4.42 |
| SS Accuracy | 59% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.54 | 3.60 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.19 | 1.87 |
| TD Acc | 53% | 44% |
| TD Def | 90% | 72% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 0.6 |
Makhachev has yet to fight for a belt against a natural lightweight. Moicano marks his fifth consecutive opponent who previously competed in the UFC at 145 pounds, alongside Charles Oliveira (5'10", 74" reach), Alexander Volkanovski (5'6", 71" reach), and Dustin Poirier (5'9", 72" reach).
Additionally, while Makhachev, 33, is nearing the wrong side of the divisional age curve (average age 33) and was set to take on a 28-year-old Tsarukyan, he'll now pivot to a 35-year-old Moicano. It's worth iterating that fighters 35 and older have never won a title fight at 170 pounds or below.
Makhachev seemed like a reduced version of his championship self in his most recent win over Dustin Poirier, requiring 16 takedown attempts and more than 10 minutes of control to submit a battered American (Poirier suffered a broken nose, rib and torn ACL in the fight).
Makhachev looked slower than usual against Poirier, and whether it was age or fighting on a different body clock in New Jersey (as opposed to his best performances, which have come in Abu Dhabi), it was an underwhelming performance.
Fractional differences in speed and athleticism can make all the difference at the highest levels of this sport, particularly in the lighter weight classes.
Still, while Moicano's striking has improved in recent years, he's a far less potent striking threat than Tsarukyan or any of Makhachev's other recent opponents.
Moicano typically wins his fights by out-grappling opponents, but that path seems unlikely against Makhachev, who is a far superior wrestler.
Moicano is an excellent jiu-jitsu practitioner with a lethal top game and incredible transitions to back takes. Still, he's unlikely to reach control positions in this fight (he spent 23% of his fight time in control position compared to 48% vs. Makhachev).
Stylistically, things could play out similar to Moicano's loss to RDA (permitted five of 15 takedowns, 13:22 of control time). I don't see Makhachev submitting Moicano with ease, but he should be able to bully him around the cage from the outset.
Moreover, Makhachev is the bigger hitter and the more technical striker, although the pair have similar efficiency numbers since both are cautious defensively due to their equally questionable chins.
Despite his difficulty with the weight cut due to his size for the division (and his insistence that he may move to welterweight), Makhachev has shown surprisingly good cardio at lightweight.
Conversely, Moicano took the fight on short notice, trained for three rounds, and has limited five-round experience.
Aside from a back take leading to a rear-naked choke or a flash knockout in a striking exchange, I have difficulty finding a path to victory for Moicano; he has minimal minute-winning upside.
Conversely, Makhachev should be able to win however and wherever he wants, and I'm expecting him to show off his striking advantage against a fellow grappler.
Makhachev vs. Moicano Prediction
I projected Islam Makhachev as an 88.8% favorite in this fight (-795 implied odds), and I don't show value on either side of the moneyline. Note that I expected to bet on Arman Tsarukyan against Makhachev before the cancellation.
I expect this fight to end inside the distance more than 85% of the time (-626 implied), in agreement with the betting market (best price -670), but I do think Moicano can survive and prolong the inevitable so Over 1.5 Rounds (-135) seems cheap.
In the winning method market, I show value on Makhachev to win by KO/TKO (projected +135, listed +190), which I would bet at +145 or better.
Sean's Picks: Islam Makhachev wins by KO/TKO (+190 at FanDuel)
