The co-main event of UFC 311 is for the UFC Bantamweight Championship, with challenger Umar Nurmagomedov facing champion Merab Dvalishvili.
Dvalishvili has won 11 straight fights and won the title in September when he handily defeated Sean O'Malley. Nurmagomedov is undefeated at 18-0 and will make his seventh walk in the UFC.
Here's my Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov prediction and preview.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Odds
| Dvalishvili Odds | +205 |
| Nurmagomedov Odds | -250 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-298 / +220) |
| Location | Intuit Dome | Inglewood, Calif. |
| Bout Time | 12:00 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 311 odds via DraftKings as of Friday night. Bet on UFC 311 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
The last name "Nurmagomedov" carries a lot of weight in the MMA world, which is why perhaps it's no surprise that Khabib's cousin Umar comes into this one as a heavy favorite despite being the title challenger.
The somewhat untested Dagestani fighter has to deal with the relentless pace and pressure of the current champion Merab Dvalishvili, who will look to make his first title defense after winning the belt four months ago at UFC 306.
Will Nurmagomedov be able to fulfill the next step in "Father's Plan," or will Dvalshvili solidify his spot as the best 135-pound fighter in the world?
Tale of the Tape
| Dvalishvili | Nurmagomedov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-4 | 18-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:07 | 11:56 |
| Height | 5'6"" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/10/1991 | 1/3/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.36 | 4.46 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 63% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.31 | 1.36 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 63% |
| Take Down Avg | 6.09 | 3.08 |
| TD Acc | 36% | 50% |
| TD Def | 80% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.4 |
My initial reaction to this line at UFC 311 was that it felt unfair to the defending champion. Merab Dvalishivili is on an 11-fight winning streak, with unprecedented numbers in the grappling department.
Dvalishivili sits second behind Georges St. Pierre for the most takedowns landed in UFC history, despite having nine fewer fights in the promotion than the all-time great. The name of Dvalishvili's game is volume, as he's racked up those numbers despite landing roughly one-third of his takedown attempts.
Doing the math, that means he attempts an absurd 18 or so takedowns per fight, while also keeping up a slightly above-average rate of striking volume.
The problem with the champions game, though, is the lack of finishing upside. He has just one stoppage victory in his 13 UFC bouts, possessing neither high-level power nor standout submission ability.
Even more so than his wrestling, his best attribute is his cardio, which allows him to keep up his frenetic pace even deep into five-round fights.
That's also arguably the only edge he holds over Nurmagomedov.
Khabib's (and training partner of UFC 311 headliner Islam Makhachev), Nurmagomedov is also an elite wrestler, and he's never been taken down inside of the UFC. Unlike his teammates and countryman, Umar is also a strong striker.
While listed as an orthodox stance fighter, Nurmagomedov often switches to southpaw, where he advances with a solid jab as well as lead side head kicks. I suspect he'll cut down on the latter in this matchup, knowing Dvalishvili is looking for the takedown.
Still, Nurmagomedov has plenty of weapons at his disposal. His jab in particular will be a useful weapon against the shorter champion, who will be looking to rush forward into grappling range. Nurmagomedov also throws plenty of combinations, like the lead hook-straight cross setup he used to flatten Raoni Barcelos in 2023.
Dvalishvili has been hurt on occasion and at 34 years old is probably starting to lose a bit of his chin. That could be a problem if he's unable to become the first man to take Nurmagomedov down.
Even if he's not landing clean, he'll be throwing the harder shots of the two, which tends to sway judges during otherwise close rounds.
Dvalshivili vs. Nurmagomedov Pick, Prediction
So, while I wanted to find a way to take the underdog here, after digging into the tape I couldn't get there. Nurmagomedov is quite possibly better in all three areas of MMA (Striking, grappling, and wrestling), with Dvalishvili's only significant edge being cardio.
However, that means an extended fight could go the way of the champ — at least if he's fully healthy. Dvalishvili suffered an injury leading into this fight and had an abbreviated camp, which could limit his typical cardio.
He also had campaigned for a longer break between fights than he ultimately got from the UFC, making this reminiscent of his teammate Aljamain Sterling losing his belt via knockout to Sean O'Malley following a quick turnaround.
A similar situation wouldn't surprise me here, especially given how dangerous Nurmagomedov is both on the feet and on the mats.
Rather than Nurmagomedov's moneyline, I'm taking a shot at his +300 odds to end the fight inside the distance at DraftKings. The underdog could certainly do enough late to steal a decision, but this fight ending early almost certainly favors the challenger.
I also like Nurmagomedov's "point spread" of -5.5 at -115. DraftKings experimented with making five-round fight spreads at +/- 9.5 recently, but the 5.5s are much easier to cover for the favorite.
With that said, if we get a silly price on Dvalishvili after a round or two, I'll look to jump in live. Nurmagomedov's cardio is somewhat untested, and "The Machine" is always live for a comeback victory.
Billy's Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission, +300 (DraftKings)
