Heat vs. Kings Odds & Betting Predictions - February 27, 2024

Over in 16/L23 home games, where he averages 18 ppg. Numbers down lately, but that’s because he’s played 11/L14 on the road (where he only averages 12 ppg). Great spot vs MIA who allow a ton of spot up shooting (most pts on second highest frequency) - Keegan crushed this matchup with 33 pts in Miami a few weeks ago. Bad spot for Sabonis and Fox as well.

This seems pretty damn low for Kings home game

@HPBasketball

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Tailing @JoeDellera x2

Keegan Murray has one of the wildest home and road splits in the NBA. On the road he averages just 12.1 points per game while shooting just 42.6% from the field and 28.7% from 3. At home? This spikes to 18.0 points per game on 49.8% shooting including 42.4% from deep. Luckily for the Kings, this is a home game against the Miami Heat. Miami will be without a number of players tonight headlined by Jimmy Butler, but stylistically they have been a strong matchup for Murray due to all of the zone they play and that they allow the third-highest frequency of 3 point attempts. In 3 games against Miami, he’s scored 33, 7, and 22 points with the 33 point effort being the most recent. His points prop is set at 13.5, a number he’s exceeded in 70% of home games this season and even his 20+ prop is worth a shot considering it’s priced at (+480) which has a 17.2% implied odds, yet he has 20+ in 39% of home games (9/23). I like Murray to exceed 13.5 Points tonight.