Timberwolves vs. Lakers Odds & Betting Predictions - February 28, 2025

🔑 Lakers -6.5 -112 (FanDuel) 3u We are doing 2 🔨s tn. Twolves coming off an absolute insane comeback, love fading teams like that. Luka and Bron getting more comfortable with each other and they are at home. Twolves have recently dominated the Lakers but i like this spot too much for me to pass up on

The rebounds and assists have dried up a bit when playing alongside of Luka. He is actually under this line in 4/5 with Luka. The one over was against a weak Hornets team. LeBron's rebound chances are a bit skewed after 19 against an undersized Mavericks team but even then he stayed under this mark because of a lack of assists. He is averaging just 12.2 Rebound Chances and 14.4 potential assists so 26.6 chances per game when you typically convert about 50% of those. The Assist rate drops precipitously with Luka. His Assists per 100 possessions drops from 12.6 without Luka to 8.0 with him. That's a significant fall off. I'll take the under on the combo prop here as he has been doing a great job of running out in transition rather than collecting boards with Luka able to throw that full-court pass. Playable at 14.5

I'm going with an alt here. Hayes is a dunker and I'd rather grab this +$ than bet on 7 where we'd need a foul and a free throw to hit that odd number. Hayes has scored ***exactly*** 7 points just once this season. Minnesota doesn't have Gobert here, so it is a weaker interior with just Naz Reid and Luka Garza. Hayes has hit this line in 8/14 without Anthony Davis and in six of his last 10.

Naz Reid has 14, 8, 11 and 11 rebounds in 4 games w/o Gobert & Randle this season. That includes 21 and 16 rebound chances in his past 2 games. The C defense vs position rankings against the Lakers is deceiving, as they have been playing a ton of small ball & force opposing bigs off the court. That won’t be the case for Naz, as he’s a stretch big who’s naturally a PF. Naz has played around 40 mins in B2B games as the Wolves only other healthy big is Luka Garza, a defensive liability. Let’s take a look at every big that has played 30+ minutes against the Lakers in the Luka Doncic era 📊 ✅ PJ Washington - 10 Reb ✅ Nikola Jokic - 13 Reb ❌ Walker Kessler - 8 Reb ✅ Walker Kessler - 12 Reb ✅ John Collins - 11 Reb This is a small sample size, but just thinking about it intuitively, Naz Reid will be guarding a combination of Jaxson Hayes, DFS and Vanderbilt, all low volume offensive guys that puts Naz in position for weak-side boards 🔥

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