Timberwolves vs. Wizards Odds & Betting Predictions - January 14, 2025

9.54% ev

Selling high on Kispert. While he’s looked great averaging 21.0 PRA over the last four games, during this stretch, he’s been shooting an outrageously high 74.3% True Shooting (+16.3% higher than his season average) and benefited vs. HOU and PHI seeing 30+ minutes with the Wizards missing Jordan Poole in both games & Alex Sarr in the other. Tonight the Wizards should have all players healthy minus Brogdon, which means Kispert’s minutes shouldn’t get past 28+. In games when playing 21-28 minutes, he averages 12.8 PRA, and goes under in 78% of the 14 instances. And in that sample size with Kuzma + Poole playing, he’s averages 12.3 PRA and goes under in 5 of 6 games. Profiling as a spot-up first player, he’ll face a Timberwolves defense that permits the fourth lowest eFG% and has Gobert/Naz down low if he decides to drive. Minnesota is allowing the fewest PPG and third lowest REB to SFs while also preventing to fewest PPG (27.0) to opposing benches over the L10 games. He’ll need to be super efficient to hit this line. #PlayerProps

THE BOUNCE 📽️: 0.46 Steals I think this line is inflated bc of the matchup, but it's still not an elite one. MIN allows the 9th most steals per game this season. Kispert has been under this mark in 5 of his last 6 games and 11 of his last 14. On the season, he's averaging 0.5 steals per game. Overall, just a nice price here. Defensive props were super profitable last season if you can pick your spots. They aren't popular, which gives us an edge.

+EV