NBA Player Prop & Pick
Mike Conley, Under 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
| Odds | -122 |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| Books Available | FanDuel |
The Jazz and Cavaliers executed the blockbuster trade of the offseason when Donovan Mitchell was shipped out of Salt Lake City for a slew of players and draft picks. This will be the second matchup between these teams this season–but the first in Utah–and the revenge-game narrative will be a popular angle amongst bettors.
That being said, my best bet for this contest involves a player who didn’t change teams. I’ll be fading Jazz point guard Mike Conley on his points, rebounds and assists (PRA) line tonight.
Conley is averaging 19.8 PRA on the season. However, his production dips to 17.1 PRA in the 11 games against top 10 defenses, failing to clear this line in seven of those matchups.
The Cavaliers not only boast the league’s best defense, but they also allow the second fewest PRA to opposing point guards. Plus, Conley likely draws the unenviable task of slowing down a charged-up Donovan Mitchell in his Utah homecoming.
Conley should struggle on the pick and roll against the length of the Cavs' interior defense. And on the facilitating end, Cleveland allows the third-fewest assists per game.
I have the 16-year veteran projected at 17 PRA tonight and would play this line down to under 19.5 PRA.
Pick: Mike Conley Under 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122) | Play to 19.5 |
