NBA Picks Tonight: Bets on Props & Totals (Feb. 13)
Prop Bet Guy will be contributing to Action Network's NBA coverage this season, also tracking his bets in the Action Network app. Follow him on Twitter.
The Heat come into this matchup against the Bucks dealing with a litany of injuries and absences. Jimmy Butler will be missing this game due to personal reasons, and both Terry Rozier and Josh Richardson are slated for extended absences after suffering injuries on Sunday. Duncan Robinson is also listed as questionable.
Role players will have to step up to support Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, and I really like Caleb Martin to provide supplemental scoring in Milwaukee.
Martin’s usage and role usually ebb and flow based on what the Heat need from him, but we’ve seen him take on a larger scoring load in the past. This season, when at least one of Butler or Herro has missed a game, Martin has cleared this line nine out of 12 times when he's played at least 26 minutes.
Against the Bucks, Miami will need Martin on the floor because of how he impacts the game on both ends. I have the wing projected for 15 points in 34 minutes tonight.
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This season, the Kings are averaging 115.8 points per game on the road, staying under this line in 16 of their 28 games away from home. Narrowing down the sample size to opponents who rank in the top half of opponent's effective field goal percentage, the Kings have failed to clear this point total in 10 of their 13 games.
Tonight, Sacramento takes on the Suns, who allow the 10th-lowest opponent effective field goal percentage. The Kings have failed to score more than 120 points in all three games against the Suns this season, including 114 and 117 in their two tries in Phoenix.
The Suns have quietly been playing some stout defense of late with a Defensive Rating of 113.5 over their last 15 games. That's the seventh-best mark in the NBA in that span. During those last 15 games, Phoenix has held 13 of 15 opponents to fewer than 121 points.
Tonight, I have the Kings projected at 115 points and would play this line down to under 118.5.
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