NBA Player Prop Bet & Pick for Christmas Day
Jrue Holiday, Under 30.5 PTS + REB + AST (-111)
| Spread | Celtics -4 |
| Time | TV | 5 p.m. ET | ABC |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Right smack in the middle of the NBA Christmas Day slate is a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference Semifinals, with the Bucks taking on the Celtics.
For this matchup, I’m looking to fade Jrue Holiday. The Bucks point guard is averaging 31.4 PRA this season, but there are a few factors pointing to him underperforming against the Celtics.
Firstly, Holiday has struggled with his shot efficiency on the road. The UCLA product is only shooting 41% from the field away from Milwaukee, and an ugly 30% from long-range. With his assists down a tad as well, his 29.9 PRA average in road contests has kept him under this line in six of 11 games.
Holiday has also labored to produce against good defenses this season. Against teams rating in the top 10 in opponent effective field goal percentage, Holiday has failed to clear this line in seven of eight games. The Celtics rank eighth, and were able to hold Holiday to 43% shooting in the regular season last year (and 36% in the playoffs).
Jrue will likely find himself matched up against the likes of Marcus Smart and Derrick White. The Celtics backcourt duo have held opposing point guards to the fifth fewest PRA over their last 15 games.
Offensively for the Bucks, the ball will be in the hands of Giannis Antetokounmpo plenty. I don’t see too much room for Holiday to garner the volume he’d need to eclipse this line, in what should be a slower paced game than the Bucks norm.
While it seems backwards to fade Holiday on Christmas, that’s exactly what I’ll be doing.
Pick: Jrue Holiday Under 30.5 PRA — Down to under 29.5 |
