NBA Player Prop & Pick
RJ Barrett, Under 22.5 PRA
| Odds | -115 |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Books Available | DraftKings |
The first two games of the Knicks-Cavs series could be described as a rock fight. Now, the series shifts to the bright lights of Madison Square Garden. The series thus far ranks as the second slowest in pace, with both teams failing to clear 95 possessions per game.
The defensive focus in this series has put offensive production at a premium. On the Knicks side, however, Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson have dominated touches offensively. Each player has a usage rate of 33%, each taking 35% of the Knicks’ shots while on the floor.
This leaves little room for RJ Barrett to produce. The enigmatic forward has seen his usage rate plummet from 25% in the regular season to 19% in the postseason. The results have been uninspiring, with Barrett accruing 17 PRA in each of the first two games.
It’s quite difficult to score on the Cavaliers inside – they allowed the second-fewest points per game within 10 feet of the basket at the fourth-lowest field goal percentage. Barrett is only a 31% shooter on jumpshots outside of 10 feet this season, which doesn’t bode well against this Cavs defense.
I don’t envision Brunson or Randle relenting on their sky-high usage rates either, which should keep Barrett’s assist chances down.
With Josh Hart and Immanuel Quickley looming as productive options off the bench, Barrett’s minutes are anything but guaranteed.
In Game 3, I have the third-year pro projected at 19 PRA, and would play this line down to under 21.5.
Pick: RJ Barrett Under 22.5 PRA (-115) | Play to Under 21.5 PRA.
