NBA Player Prop & Pick
Aaron Gordon Under 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
| Odds | -104 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| Books Available | FanDuel |
Game 2 in an NBA playoff series is usually the trickiest from a player props perspective. Between only having a one-game sample size and trying to figure out what adjustments each team will make, it’s difficult to separate which Game-1 performances were truly trends from those that were anomalies.
Take Aaron Gordon, for example. The Nuggets forward exploded for 17 points, rebounds and assists in just the first quarter, en route to blowing past his P+A line for the full game. However, Gordon recorded just six total PRA in the final three quarters of Game 1 while taking only two shots over that span.
The latter intrigues me more and is part of the reason why I’m on AG’s PRA under for Game 2. In that first quarter, the Nuggets took advantage of Gordon being switched onto Max Strus and Gabe Vincent by getting him looks at the basket.
However, the Heat tweaked their defense after that first quarter by playing more zone and packing the paint the rest of the game. Not only did this adjustment spur a bit of a comeback, but it also limited Gordon’s action off of secondary cuts.
I expect the Heat to continue to protect the paint and midrange in an effort to limit Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Bam Adebayo and company likely will look to push the Nuggets offense to the perimeter.
Gordon struggles to score outside of the paint, with only 21 shots made outside of 10 feet during these playoffs (for an average of 1.3 per game). With the bruiser relegated to the corner, his assist chances should plummet as well.
I do expect the Nuggets to try to exploit the Heat's lack of size with Gordon, but I don’t see the results being quite as effective in Game 2 (Gordon was 3/3 with 6 points on three post-ups).
The forward from Arizona has had some strong games these playoffs, but as the usual fourth option offensively, he’s failed to clear this line in seven of his last 10 games. Expect that trend to continue tonight, as I have AG projected for 18 PRA and would play this line down to under 20.5.
Pick: Aaron Gordon Under 21.5 PRA (-104 | Play to Under 20.5 PRA) |
