NBA Player Prop & Pick
Jimmy Butler Under 33.5 Points + Assists
| Odds | -120 |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Books Available | DraftKings |
Jimmy Butler has, once again, reminded the national audience that he is one of the best players in the NBA. Playoff Jimmy has come out in full force, averaging 34.2 points + assists this postseason — far exceeding his regular-season averages.
That being said, I’m fading the superstar in Game 1 on his P+A line.
The Heat enter this game with some massive disadvantages – the rest discrepancy being the most obvious. The Nuggets enter this game off of a full nine days off, which should also bode well for ironing out their defensive game plan against Jimmy Buckets.
Aaron Gordon will almost exclusively draw the Butler assignment. The athletic forward has been tasked with guarding Karl-Anthony Towns, Kevin Durant and LeBron James thus far in the playoffs. He’s one of the few players in the NBA with the size and strength to keep Butler at bay on his drives.
Of course, Jimmy can beat the Nuggets with his jump shot, but I’m counting on tired legs to weigh him down (literally and figuratively). After an intense seven-game series against the Celtics, Butler and the Heat now have to play in the Denver altitude.
In the regular season, the Nuggets defense held their opponents to 33.8% shooting outside of 15 feet from the basket at home – the lowest mark in the league. In the playoffs, that number has dropped to 32.3%.
I’m tacking on assists here too, as I expect Butler’s assist conversions to also be affected. 62 of Butler’s 97 assists in the playoffs have been on outside shots (at least 15 feet from the basket).
The Marquette product has proven to be an outlier when the spotlight is brightest, but he is coming off a series where he stayed under this line in four of seven games. I have Butler projected at 30 P+A tonight against the Fighting Jokics and would play this line down to under 32.5.
Pick: Jimmy Butler Under 33.5 Points + Assists (-120 | Play to 32.5 P+A) |
