NBA Player Prop & Pick
Jimmy Butler Under 25.5 Points
| Odds | Butler u25.5 PTS (-105) |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Books Available | BetMGM |
The Heat shocked the world by winning Game 2 of the NBA Finals in Denver. Now, with the series knotted at one win apiece, the dynamic of this matchup has dramatically changed.
With the series shifting to Miami, conventional thinking may suggest we'll see a Jimmy Butler takeover game — something we've yet to see in the NBA Finals.
Well, not so fast, my friend (shoutout to Lee Corso).
Butler is, of course, more than capable of blowing past this line. But he has gone under this points line in seven of 13 games since returning from his ankle injury. In this series, he’s only managed 13 and 21 points.
Taking a deeper look into Butler’s scoring profile this series, the Nuggets (namely Aaron Gordon) are doing an excellent job keeping Butler out of the paint. Before the Finals, Butler had averaged 9.9 shots per game from within eight feet of the basket. In the two Finals games, Butler has attempted 10 shots total from that range.
Gordon and the Nuggets have forced Butler to pass out of 17 of his 27 drives (63%). Before the Finals, Butler had only passed out of 106 of 303 drives (35%).
And predictably, the Marquette product’s free throw attempts have also plummeted (only five total attempts in two games).
It won’t be comfortable — fading a superstar never is — but Butler can impact the game in so many more ways than just scoring. I have Butler projected for 22 points and would play this line down to under 24.5 points.
