PropBetGuy's NBA Player Props for Friday
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 5:30 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
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Pacers vs. Bucks
Obi Toppin
Over 7.5 Points
After a regular season of unpredictable minutes for his role players, Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle finally shortened to an eight-man rotation in Game 2.
Obi Toppin was one of the beneficiaries, garnering 21 minutes. Toppin’s minutes had been up and down since the trade to bring in Pascal Siakam, but he had a strong April, averaging 13.7 points per game.
Game 2 saw Toppin score nine points despite some poor shooting from the outside (1-of-5 from 3). But the volume was promising with 11 field-goal attempts.
I’ll make the assumption that Carlisle sticks with the same rotation after the resounding win. Toppin has cleared this point line in 22 of his last 30 games when playing between 18 and 24 minutes, per PropsMadness.
I have Topping reaching double-digit points tonight and would play this line up to -125.
Pick: Obi Toppin Over 7.5 Points (-102 · Play to -125)
Mavericks vs. Clippers
Kawhi Leonard
Under 25.5 Points + Assists
After a three-week absence with a knee injury, Kawhi Leonard returned to the Clippers' lineup for Game 2, notching 15 points and 2 assists on 7-of-17 shooting from the field.
Digging into the details, Leonard shot 3-of-12 on his jumpers in Game 2, including 0-of-5 from long range. His 3-point shot has eluded him since the All-Star break, as he has shot just 32% from behind the arc.
With a tough individual matchup against PJ Washington — who ranks in the 80th percentile in defensive plus-minus, per Dunks and Threes — I don’t see Kawhi getting enough volume in his midrange isolation game to push past this line, especially given the pace of the series.
The first two games saw each team accrue 92 and 93 possessions — a material drop off from the 97 the Clippers averaged in the regular season.
With the uncertainty of Kawhi’s minutes coming off injury and the fact that the Clippers have several other high-usage options offensively, there are enough variables for me to bet this under.
I have Leonard projected at 22 points and assists tonight.
Pick: Kawhi Leonard Under 25.5 Points + Assists (-115 · Play to 24.5)
