Let’s start with the obvious: Both teams are going to play their main guys big minutes tonight. There is no tomorrow if you lose, so I’m expecting massive workloads for the key rotation players.
Keegan Murray fits that bill for the Kings. The sophomore forward has already seen his minutes spike to 36.6 minutes per game in April, so he should be in line for at least 38 tonight.
Murray was the king of the home/road split this season, averaging 17.5 PPG in home games compared to just 13 PPG on the road. We get the good side of that split for Murray tonight at the Golden 1 Center.
The Kings will be without Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter tonight, with both tending to long-term injuries. Specifically without Monk, Murray has stepped up in a big way. He’s cleared this points line in seven of 10 games without the Sixth Man of the Year candidate suited up this season, including five of six at home.
And playing against the Warriors defense represents a solid opportunity for Murray to capitalize on his strengths. Golden State ranks in the bottom 10 defensively against Murray’s preferred play-types: spot-up shooting and transition.
Murray averaged 19.4 points per 38 minutes in homes games this season. Coupling the robust minutes projection, a solid matchup and no Monk makes this a perfect spot for the Iowa product. Hoping Murray channels his inner Caitlin Clark tonight, I have the sharpshooter projected at 19 points.
Pick: Keegan Murray Over 17.5 Points (-122; Play to -135)
