The Duke Blue Devils take on the Boston College Eagles in Chestnut Hill, MA. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 22 points on the spread with a moneyline of -5000. The total is set at 138.5 points.
Here are my Duke vs. Boston College predictions and college basketball picks for January 18, 2025.
Duke vs Boston College Prediction and Pick
My Pick: Under 138.5 (Play to 138)
My Duke vs Boston College best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
College Basketball Odds: Duke vs Boston College
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23 -112 | 137.5 -112o / -108u | -10000 |
| Boston Col Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23 -108 | 137.5 -108o / -112u | +2500 |
- Duke vs Boston College spread: Duke -23
- Duke vs Boston College over/under: 137.5 points
- Duke vs Boston College moneyline: Duke -10000, Boston College +2500
- Duke vs Boston College best bet: Under 138.5 (Play to 138)
My Duke vs Boston College College Basketball Betting Preview
The big Blue Devil question is if there will ever be a good spot to fade them. Will there ever be a good enough spot for them to have a letdown or a big underdog to pick them off?
I don’t think this is the spot.
There aren’t many ways to score on Duke, which has the best three-level defense in the nation. It’s nearly impossible to score on-ball against Duke, especially with Sion James as the point-of-attack ball-screen coverage guy.
And it’s nearly impossible to get downhill and score over Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach at the rim.
But the best way is likely by shooting over the Blue Devils, as they can be vulnerable against off-ball screening actions.
In the Blue Devils' two losses, Kentucky and Kansas were able to stretch them in spread pick-and-roll sets, drawing two guys to the ball and finding open players — per Synergy, Kentucky scored 10 points on nine ball-screens when getting Duke to commit (1.11 PPP), while Kansas scored 19 on 15 (1.27 PPP).
Unfortunately, Boston College won’t do that. The Eagles prefer to work on the interior, often by feeding the post and playing high-low or cutting actions with Chad Venning and Elijah Strong. They rank in the bottom 20 nationally in 3-point rate (31%, per KenPom).
The Eagles aren’t great at executing this offense. Per KenPom, they rank last in the ACC in 2-point shooting (44%).
On the other end of the court, Scheyer runs a secondary motion-based offense predicated on a million off-ball screening actions to get Duke’s bevy of shot-makers out in space. Obviously, the Blue Devils do that very well, as they lead the ACC in 3-point shooting (41%, per KenPom).
However, I think the Eagles have a shot to slow the Blue Devils down. Boston College has been a rather good 3-point denial defense in ACC play, leading the league in 3-point rate allowed (29%, per KenPom) and High-Quality 3s Allowed (per ShotQuality).
The Eagles are also due for positive regression on that end. Opponents have shot a whopping 37% from 3 in conference play, while ShotQuality projects opponents should be shooting closer to 32% based on the “quality” of attempts, especially at low volume.
I also suspect Duke’s offense will suffer a bit of 3-point shooting regression, as I think the Devils will finish conference play closer to 38% than 41%.
Ultimately, Duke’s defense should shut down Boston College’s offense, but I think the Eagles’ defense could throw the Blue Devils’ offense out of rhythm by mucking up perimeter actions.
Therefore, I’m looking toward the under.
That’s a good thing because Duke games have hit the under at a 72% clip since Scheyer took over for Coach K, producing a 37% ROI. That includes a 4-1 record this season.
Under Scheyer, Duke has evolved into a slow-paced, half-court-heavy squad that ranks 276th nationally in adjusted tempo (65 possessions per game, per KenPom). The Blue Devils get out in transition at a nation-average rate, but they're elite in transition denial (five fast-break points per game, 98th nationally).
They consistently play 65-possession game scripts now, and I don’t think the market ever caught up, considering Duke loved to run under Coach K.
Duke’s terrifying defense and disciplined tempo-control always travel, but shooting doesn’t always do the same, as the Blue Devils have shot 40% at home this year compared to 35% on the road (per Bart Torvik).
Duke’s two non-conference road games stayed under, both against up-tempo squads (Arizona, Louisville). The Blue Devils are awesome at forcing opponents into their preferred pace.
But Boston College won’t try to speed Duke up. The Eagles rank 232nd nationally in adjusted tempo (per KenPom), they don’t get out in transition (9.4 transition possessions per game, seventh percentile, per Synergy) and they’re elite in transition denial (9.5 transition possessions per game allowed, 10th percentile, per Synergy).
The pace of this game could be depressingly slow. Boston College won’t shoot many 3s and won’t be able to get anything against Duke, while the Eagles will deny the Blue Devils’ precious triples.
Expect a rock fight and wager accordingly.
