Chiefs vs. Ravens Odds & Betting Predictions - January 28, 2024

VegasInsider.com’s Razor Ray Monohan SuN Free Play! Follow on X @Cappers_Picks

Switching sides to be more contrarian teehee :)

DK boost

Read why: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-props-back-justice-hill-chiefs-ravens

@charliedisturco and Brian Matthews

@TheTDShow

Via @Stuckey2

Expecting the Chiefs to be playing from behind

It's gross, but +1050 is fair value

@The_Oddsmaker

Projection: 42.6. For more, check out Fantasy Life.

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/kyle-hamilton-player-prop-nfl-playoffs-bet-chiefs-vs-ravens

Forgot to put this in from pod. Would still play but not below 44

69 with Dale? NASCAR Busch Light Clash is in 7 days!

@nick_giffen

@GreenDotDaily

@The_Oddsmaker

Simon official pick

Raybon 2

Boyd

@GDAWG5000

Tune into TD Show on Sunday for reasoning

Chiefs D play man coverage at top-5 rate and Agholor leads Ravens with 5 TDs vs Man this season. May add more to Agholor as we get closer to gametime but +800 is too steep to pass on.

Via Maria Marino

Initially leaned towards the under……..said on VSIN last night, I’ll be on the over. Chiefs offensive improvements have been real over the past 4 weeks.

Hasn’t closed above +400 all season to score a TD. If I’m betting a Chiefs longshot, this is my pick.

Hill out-snapped Edwards 39 to 23 and has become the primary RB for Baltimore. Has gone over this number in 3 of L4 and the loss was in WK18 where he barely played against Pittsburgh KC is bottom 10 in DVOA against RBs in the passing game and 27th in DVOA against the run (in general). Could see an over-adjustment on stopping Lamar and more explosives for guys like Hill in short passes and runs

Blowout kept Hill from hitting this number against Houston, but in the three games prior (all three games since Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell went on IR) Hill racked up 3/5/3 receptions (5 and 10 targets in the last 2 games). Hill ran 17 routes last week, and the Chiefs pressure should have Lamar looking at the short passing game. Running backs have 26 receptions over the last 4 games vs. KC, so I like Hill to clear this number.

This one checks all the boxes: -big game narrative (Lamar 3/4 to the over in his postseason career) -saw an uptick in designed rushes/keepers last week (7 - averaged 4.4 per game in the regular season) -chiefs pressure the QB at the second highest rate - leads to more scrambles -chiefs have allowed + rush attempts vs mobile QBs (Allen 10+ twice, Hurts 12, Wilson 8 and 4, Fields 11) -their primary QB spy, Willie Gay, is banged up Should also be another cool, windy Baltimore day. I love the Ravens to control the ball in this one as well. I have Jackson between 11 and 12.

Write up later in week. Don’t chase. Don’t be dumb

… outside unders postseason - copy Overall: 81-54-3,60% (ROI:16%) Season:3-1-1,75% (ROI:35%) … outside unders postseason Overall: 67-32-2,68% (ROI:30%) Season:2-0-0,100% (ROI:93%) … contrarian unders playoffs Overall: 74-36-3,67% (ROI:30%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)