Commanders vs. Bengals Odds & Betting Predictions - September 24, 2024

Should lead this backfield, and should be a spot where the Bengals control game flow.

Sneaky spot for Burrow here in a good matchup at home. Facing the Commanders, this is a defense that is lacking talent in that secondary, ranking 23rd in pass yards allowed, 32nd in pass TDs allowed, and 27th in INT% with 0 picks on the season. Burrow has historically taken pretty good care of the football and now faces a team that couldn't even get an interception on Daniel Jones. This secondary has faced two of the more wild throwers of the football in Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones and still was not able to snag an interception. Baker threw for 289 yards and 4 TDs against this defense and Daniel Jones threw for 178 and 2 TD, which are HOF numbers for him. Both of those guys force throws and a lot of times cost their teams by trying to fit balls into tight windows, but yet this defense still could not get 1 interception. Burrow is pick free through 2 games and with a defense allowing 11 yards per completion and just shy of 70% completion % to opposing QBs, I don't see how they will be able to get their first of the season here. Especially as -7.5 favorites at home, that indicates a positive game script for Burrow to throw early to get the lead, then lean on the run game to secure their first win of the season. Now, it is the NFL and something as easy as a tipped ball or dropped pass can cause an INT, so .75u on this if that worries you. However, I think we are getting a great price for a guy that historically makes good/safe decisions with the football vs a bad pass defense

Middle shot only if you tailed Round Robin

Bet365

McLaurin is under this line in both games, with a long reception of 12 yards, in arguably easier matchups than he’ll have tonight. In the Kliff Kingsbury offense, he’s almost exclusively lining up on the left side, meaning he’ll get Cam Taylor-Britt (Cinci’s best corner, who lines up almost exclusively across the LWR), and it’s also much easier for defenses to key in on him, knowing where he’s lining up. In general, McLaurin’s aDOT is 9.2 yards, and Daniels’ is 5.2 yards - easily the lowest amongst starting QBs. His longest throw to a receiver this season went for 34 yards (Noah Brown catch and run), and he has yet to complete a pass to a receiver for more than 17 air yards. The Bengals are allowing the second shortest aDOT through two games (5.3). Could see some rain too.

@The_Oddsmaker

Longest runs of 8 and 12 this season on minimal carries - Zac Taylor mentioned Brown’s dip in snaps/touches last week was “unintentional.” Books line movement on Zack Moss rush attempts 13.5 —> 11.5 suggest there might be some truth to that Brown has covered in 4/8 with 3+ carries and 3/4 with 6+ carries (RA line of 6.5). - WAS 5.8% Stacked Box% (#31) - WAS 2.19 YBCo/ATT (#1) KC also bottom-12 in stacked% and top-12 in YBCo/ATT and Brown had a 13 yard run. RB’s vs. WAS: - Rachaad White: 15 LR - Bucky Irving: 31 LR - Devin Singletary: 22 LR All RB’s who saw 4+ carries covered their longest rush line vs. the Commanders

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

#tailing @The_Oddsmaker

FanDuel

Tailing @sandyplashkes

Bet a 3rd time. We are locked in with 3u

Genuinely hate this team

#ProSystem … 1H extended rest unders Overall: 116-63-3,65% (ROI:25%) Season:1-0-0,100% (ROI:102%) … 1H primetime unders Overall: 131-75-2,64% (ROI:22%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

Same thing happened last year with Chase

Sura

Sandy

Ekeler comes into this season on a new team and is now RB2, but he is still seeing about 50% of the snaps. Ekeler is over in 2/2 games with 52 and 47 receiving yards and has been targeted 4 and 3 times in those games. Ekeler has been a nice option for rookie QB Jayden Daniels to check down to. Daniels will be in his first primetime game and as +7.5 road dogs, he will need all the help he can get. Ekeler is familiar with helping young QBs, as he formed a great connection with Justin Herbert when he was with the Chargers. He also has great history in primetime games, granted it was with a different team, but it is a spot where he seems to play some of his best ball. Dating back to the 2021 season, EKeler is over this line in 81% of primetime games, including 5/7 on the road.The Bengals are coming off a close loss to the Chiefs, in a game where they started to look more like themselves. Burrow and the offense played well and we will see if they can carry that momentum into this week. As +7.5 favorites the books are betting that this game will be dominated by the home team Bengals, which gives us a positive game script on this line with Daniels needing to pass. This should keep this prop alive well into the 4th and for such a low line for a guy that has seen great success through 2 weeks, we may not even need that.

This is for MONDAY and on FD. Lines moving .5 to the over everywhere and FD still sitting at 46.5

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