Commanders vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - November 5, 2023
Commanders at Patriots
6:00 pm • FOXCommanders at Patriots Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Commanders 7-2 | +2.5 | +3-112 | o40.5-112 | +130 |
Patriots 2-7 | u40.5 | -3-107 | u40.5-107 | -154 |
Sunday 6:00 p.m.
November 05, 2023Gillette StadiumFoxborough
Commanders vs. Patriots Expert Picks
Greg Matherne
365d ago
Last 30d: 23-45-0 (-15.0u)
WAS +3-115
1u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
365d ago
Last 30d: 201-231-1 (-18.0u)
WAS +3-120
1.04u
WAS +130
1.63u
The Touchdown Show
365d ago
Last 30d: 11-40-0 (+8.8u)
J.Dotson Anytime TD Scorer+300
3u
@GDAWG5000
Simon Hunter
365d ago
Last 30d: 25-29-1 (-7.8u)
NE -3-109
1u
Mjaybrod
366d ago
Last 30d: 113-127-0 (-4.6u)
WAS +3-120
0.83u
This line is about to move to 2.5
Sean Zerillo
366d ago
Last 30d: 79-99-3 (-9.9u)
WAS +3-110
0.5u
Kyle "Vince" Akins
366d ago
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
WAS +3-120
1.25u
Charlie DiSturco
366d ago
Last 30d: 63-74-2 (+7.3u)
D.Douglas o45.5 Rec Yds-110
1u
Geoff aka OldManWhoBets
366d ago
Last 30d: 23-27-0 (-2.8u)
NE -2.5-114
1u
FanDuel
Matthew Freedman
366d ago
Last 30d: 2-2-0 (+0.0u)
NE -2.5-117
1.17u
Projection: -4. For more, check out Fantasy Life.
Shady Biev
366d ago
Last 30d: 210-217-4 (+18.7u)
NE -2.5-119
1.79u
Brandon Anderson
366d ago
Last 30d: 38-68-0 (+1.2u)
NE -2.5-114
0.5u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-odds-picks-week-9-betting-preview-for-every-game-every-team
Royals Props
366d ago
Last 30d: 59-41-0 (+13.5u)
J.Davis o7.5 Tackles + Ast-110
1u
Gilles Gallant
366d ago
Last 30d: 49-100-1 (+3.8u)
J.Dotson Anytime TD Scorer+300
3u
Bet at Bet365. Would still play to +270. Pats are No1 in DVOA to WR1 and No26 in DVOA to WR2. No Curtis Samuel. Love this spot for Dotson.
Royals Props
366d ago
Last 30d: 59-41-0 (+13.5u)
R.Stevenson o71.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115
1u
Brian Bitler
367d ago
Last 30d: 44-46-6 (-12.0u)
WAS +2.5+100
3u
Sunday Six Pack
367d ago
Last 30d: 8-21-1 (-15.4u)
WAS +3.5-110
1u
Raybon 1
Royals Props
369d ago
Last 30d: 59-41-0 (+13.5u)
L.Thomas u35.5 Rec Yds-115
1u
Prop Bet Guy
369d ago
Last 30d: 100-81-0 (+8.7u)
L.Thomas o32.5 Rec Yds-113
1.13u
Over in 5/7, and gets the matchup that has continued to produce outlier results vs TEs (6/8 opposing TEs have cleared their line vs NE). Pats rush defense is good (7th in DVOA, per FTN), and they will look to take away McLaurin (1st in DVOA vs WR1). WSH also 1st in pass play percentage this season. Play to o35.5.
Jim Sannes
370d ago
Last 30d: 13-31-0 (-6.2u)
Under 40.5-115
0.87u
Available at FanDuel.This is a low total. But I do think it should be even a bit lower. The wind speeds are currently at 9 miles per hour, which results in a small downgrade. But also, the Patriots’ offense doesn’t generate explosive plays and just lost Kendrick Bourne for the season. The Commanders throw a ton, which stops the clock and can lead to overs. We saw the impact of that last week. But the model knows that and still shows value in the under. This number for me is closer to 36 than 40.5, so I’m fine taking the under.
Chris Raybon
370d ago
Last 30d: 18-18-1 (-2.3u)
WAS +3.5-115
0.87u
Fire sale or not, these teams are evenly matched at worst. Road dogs +6.5 or less are 167-94-8 (64%) ATS with a +3.1 ATS margin when facing a home fav averaging fewer than 18.0 PPG since 2006 (NE 14.8 PPG).
Matt Moore
371d ago
Last 30d: 75-90-2 (+1.3u)
WAS +3-105
1u
PRO Insights
Commanders
WAS Insights
- Featured InsightThe Commanders have averaged 2.2 passing TDs per game since Week 5 -- tied for second-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 2.0 passing touchdowns per game since Week 5 -- tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
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Patriots
NE Insights
- Featured InsightThe Commanders have gone three and out on 25% of their drives this season -- tied for fifth-worst in NFL. Patriots have forced three and outs on 24% of opponent drives this season -- tied for sixth-best in NFL.
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Commanders vs. Patriots Previews & Analysis
Commanders vs. Patriots Props
Prop Projections
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Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Commanders vs. Patriots Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Patriots are 0-5 in their last 5 games.
- Patriots are 1-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Patriots are 2-3 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Patriots' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Patriots' 4 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patriots | 3-6-1 | 1-2-1 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 3-5-1 |
Commanders | 8-1-1 | 5-0 | 3-1-1 | 5-0 | 3-1-1 |
Over/Under History
overall | home o/u | away o/u | favorite o/u | underdog o/u | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patriots | 5-5 | 3-1 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 5-4 |
Commanders | 6-4 | 1-4 | 5-0 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
Straight-Up (ML) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patriots | 2-7 | N/A | N/A | 0-1 | 2-7 |
Commanders | 7-2 | N/A | N/A | 5-0 | 3-2 |
Last 5 Matchups
Commanders vs. Patriots Injury Updates
Commanders Injuries
- Cornelius LucasT
Lucas is out with ankle
Out
- Brian RobinsonRB
Robinson is questionable with hamstring
Questionable
Patriots Injuries
- Kyle DuggerS
Dugger is out with ankle
Out
- Christian EllissLB
Elliss is questionable with abdomen
Questionable
- Alex AustinCB
Austin is questionable with ankle
Questionable
- Jaquelin RoyDT
Roy is questionable with neck
Questionable
Team Stats
Commanders vs. Patriots Odds Comparison
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Commanders at Patriots Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Commanders 7-2 | o19.5-108 | u19.5-109 |
Patriots 2-7 | o21.5-105 | u21.5-112 |