Commanders vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - November 5, 2023

Commanders at Patriots

6:00 pm • FOX
20 - 17

Commanders at Patriots Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Commanders
7-2
+2.5
+3-112
o40.5-112
+130
Patriots
2-7
u40.5
-3-107
u40.5-107
-154
location pinSunday 6:00 p.m.
November 05, 2023
Gillette StadiumFoxborough
Commanders vs. Patriots Expert Picks
Greg Matherne
Greg Matherne
365d ago
Last 30d: 23-45-0 (-15.0u)
WAS +3-115
1u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Top Shelf Action 🥃
365d ago
Last 30d: 201-231-1 (-18.0u)
WAS +3-120
1.04u
WAS +130
1.63u
The Touchdown Show
The Touchdown Show
365d ago
Last 30d: 11-40-0 (+8.8u)
J.Dotson Anytime TD Scorer+300
3u
@GDAWG5000
Simon Hunter
Simon Hunter
365d ago
Last 30d: 25-29-1 (-7.8u)
NE -3-109
1u
Mjaybrod
Mjaybrod
366d ago
Last 30d: 113-127-0 (-4.6u)
WAS +3-120
0.83u
This line is about to move to 2.5
Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo
366d ago
Last 30d: 79-99-3 (-9.9u)
WAS +3-110
0.5u
Kyle "Vince" Akins
Kyle "Vince" Akins
366d ago
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
WAS +3-120
1.25u
Charlie DiSturco
Charlie DiSturco
366d ago
Last 30d: 63-74-2 (+7.3u)
D.Douglas o45.5 Rec Yds-110
1u
Geoff aka OldManWhoBets
Geoff aka OldManWhoBets
366d ago
Last 30d: 23-27-0 (-2.8u)
NE -2.5-114
1u
FanDuel
Matthew Freedman
Matthew Freedman
366d ago
Last 30d: 2-2-0 (+0.0u)
NE -2.5-117
1.17u
Projection: -4. For more, check out Fantasy Life.
Shady Biev
Shady Biev
366d ago
Last 30d: 210-217-4 (+18.7u)
NE -2.5-119
1.79u
Brandon Anderson
Brandon Anderson
366d ago
Last 30d: 38-68-0 (+1.2u)
NE -2.5-114
0.5u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-odds-picks-week-9-betting-preview-for-every-game-every-team
Royals Props
Royals Props
366d ago
Last 30d: 59-41-0 (+13.5u)
J.Davis o7.5 Tackles + Ast-110
1u
Gilles Gallant
Gilles Gallant
366d ago
Last 30d: 49-100-1 (+3.8u)
J.Dotson Anytime TD Scorer+300
3u
Bet at Bet365. Would still play to +270. Pats are No1 in DVOA to WR1 and No26 in DVOA to WR2. No Curtis Samuel. Love this spot for Dotson.
Royals Props
Royals Props
366d ago
Last 30d: 59-41-0 (+13.5u)
R.Stevenson o71.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115
1u
Brian Bitler
Brian Bitler
367d ago
Last 30d: 44-46-6 (-12.0u)
WAS +2.5+100
3u
Sunday Six Pack
Sunday Six Pack
367d ago
Last 30d: 8-21-1 (-15.4u)
WAS +3.5-110
1u
Raybon 1
Royals Props
Royals Props
369d ago
Last 30d: 59-41-0 (+13.5u)
L.Thomas u35.5 Rec Yds-115
1u
Prop Bet Guy
Prop Bet Guy
369d ago
Last 30d: 100-81-0 (+8.7u)
L.Thomas o32.5 Rec Yds-113
1.13u
Over in 5/7, and gets the matchup that has continued to produce outlier results vs TEs (6/8 opposing TEs have cleared their line vs NE). Pats rush defense is good (7th in DVOA, per FTN), and they will look to take away McLaurin (1st in DVOA vs WR1). WSH also 1st in pass play percentage this season. Play to o35.5.
Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes
370d ago
Last 30d: 13-31-0 (-6.2u)
Under 40.5-115
0.87u
Available at FanDuel.This is a low total. But I do think it should be even a bit lower. The wind speeds are currently at 9 miles per hour, which results in a small downgrade. But also, the Patriots’ offense doesn’t generate explosive plays and just lost Kendrick Bourne for the season. The Commanders throw a ton, which stops the clock and can lead to overs. We saw the impact of that last week. But the model knows that and still shows value in the under. This number for me is closer to 36 than 40.5, so I’m fine taking the under.
Chris Raybon
Chris Raybon
370d ago
Last 30d: 18-18-1 (-2.3u)
WAS +3.5-115
0.87u
Fire sale or not, these teams are evenly matched at worst. Road dogs +6.5 or less are 167-94-8 (64%) ATS with a +3.1 ATS margin when facing a home fav averaging fewer than 18.0 PPG since 2006 (NE 14.8 PPG).
Matt Moore
Matt Moore
371d ago
Last 30d: 75-90-2 (+1.3u)
WAS +3-105
1u

PRO Insights

Commanders logo

Commanders

WAS Insights
  • Commanders logoThe Commanders have averaged 2.2 passing TDs per game since Week 5 -- tied for second-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 2.0 passing touchdowns per game since Week 5 -- tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
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Patriots logo

Patriots

NE Insights
  • Patriots logoThe Commanders have gone three and out on 25% of their drives this season -- tied for fifth-worst in NFL. Patriots have forced three and outs on 24% of opponent drives this season -- tied for sixth-best in NFL.
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Commanders vs. Patriots Previews & Analysis

  • The 2 Sharpest Spread Predictions for NFL Week 9 article feature image

    The 2 Sharpest Spread Predictions for NFL Week 9

    PJ Walsh
    Nov 5, 2023 UTC
  • Commanders vs. Patriots: A Great Spot to Back New England article feature image

    Commanders vs. Patriots: A Great Spot to Back New England

    Phillip Kall
    Nov 5, 2023 UTC
  • Raybon's 4 Best Bets for the 1 p.m. ET Slate article feature image

    Raybon's 4 Best Bets for the 1 p.m. ET Slate

    Chris Raybon
    Nov 5, 2023 UTC
  • NFL Predictive Analytics: Data-Driven Picks for Week 9 article feature image

    NFL Predictive Analytics: Data-Driven Picks for Week 9

    Action Predictive Analytics
    Nov 5, 2023 UTC
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Commanders vs. Patriots Props

Prop Projections

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Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Commanders vs. Patriots Public Betting Percentages

47%

Bets%

53%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Patriots
3-6-11-2-12-30-13-5-1
Commanders
8-1-15-03-1-15-03-1-1

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Patriots
5-53-11-40-15-4
Commanders
6-41-45-02-34-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Patriots
2-7N/AN/A0-12-7
Commanders
7-2N/AN/A5-03-2

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Oct 29th@MIAL 17-31+8.5 LO 46.5MIA +350
Oct 22ndBUFW 29-25+7.5 WO 41.5NE +310
Oct 15th@LVL 17-21+3 LU 41.5LV +124
Oct 8thNOL 0-34-2 LU 38.5NO -130
Oct 1st@DALL 3-38+6 LU 43DAL +220

Commanders vs. Patriots Injury Updates

Commanders Injuries

  • Cornelius Lucas
    T

    Lucas is out with ankle

    Out

  • Brian Robinson
    RB

    Robinson is questionable with hamstring

    Questionable

Patriots Injuries

  • Kyle Dugger
    S

    Dugger is out with ankle

    Out

  • Christian Elliss
    LB

    Elliss is questionable with abdomen

    Questionable

  • Alex Austin
    CB

    Austin is questionable with ankle

    Questionable

  • Jaquelin Roy
    DT

    Roy is questionable with neck

    Questionable

Team Stats
432
Total Yards
327
77
Total Plays
63
5.6
Yards Per Play
5.2
325
YDS
220
29/45
Comps/Atts
24/44
6.417
YPA
5
1/1
TDs/INTs
1/1
3/17
Sacks/Yards
0/0
124
Rush Yards
107
29
Attempts
19
4.276
YPC
5.632
1
TDs
1
1
Fumbles Lost
0
1
Interceptions
1
1/4 25%
Redzone
1/1 100%
9/17 0%
3rd Down
3/12 0%
0/0 0%
4th Down
1/2 0%
23
Total
18
14
Pass
13
8
Rush
4
1
Penalty
1
4/30
Penalties/Yards
4/30
37:10
Possession
22:50

Commanders vs. Patriots Odds Comparison

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Commanders at Patriots Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Commanders
7-2
o19.5-108
u19.5-109
Patriots
2-7
o21.5-105
u21.5-112