Falcons vs. Saints Odds & Betting Predictions - January 7, 2024

Every week I have my girlfriend pick one game for me… current GFPOTW is 19-8

@GDAWG5000

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-props-week-18-drake-london-tyler-scott-sunday

@SimonHunterNFL

Kamara is out.

This is a spot where both teams have motivation to win, so that's not playing a part in the handicap of backing the Saints. I just think they're a better team by a decent amount. They've certainly had their ups and downs this year, but when you look at the year as a whole, they're actually 11th in my power rankings, thanks to respectable marks on both offense and defense. Atlanta is 23rd despite having a better-than-expected defense. The Saints should have good success if they air it out on early downs. They rank 7th in early-down, schedule-adjusted passing efficiency while Atlanta is 28th defensively. They've excelled against the rush on late downs, so if the Saints are willing to go to the air, they should be able to move the ball. It would be a downgrade if Alvin Kamara were unable to play due to his sprained ankle, but it does sound like there's at least a chance he can go. The composite of my two models has the Saints favored by 5.3 here, so I'm fine laying the 3.5 in one of the bigger games of the week.