Saints vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Predictions - November 26, 2023

@charliedisturco

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-12-odds-picks-preview

Bet at FanDuel.

Stuckey 2

Available at FanDuel. Reports Monday were that Derek Carr had yet to clear concussion protocol. But he still needs to pass certain practice barriers to clear, so I'd expect him to have plenty of time to get there by game time. The team will likely be without both Marshon Lattimore and Michael Thomas, but even accounting for those, my model has the Saints favored by 1.7 points here. They're the 14th-ranked team by my model when you ignore a prior versus the Falcons in 24th, and the prior also favors the Saints. The Falcons just haven't been able to move the ball on early downs -- whether via the pass or the rush -- despite an easy schedule thus far. The Saints' defense has also benefited from an easy schedule, but even when you account for that, they rank second in late-down success rate allowed, trailing just the Cleveland Browns. This number could move if we get bad news on Carr, but I'm willing to risk that given there's a pretty big gap between my model and the market right now.