The Buffalo Bills will visit the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium for Thursday Night Football tonight. Kick off is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
Read below for PropBetGuy's Jaylen Waddle player prop prediction for Bills vs Dolphins.
Jaylen Waddle Player Prop Prediction for Bills vs Dolphins on TNF
Target Jaylen Waddle on Thursday Night Football
Week 2 kicks off with an interdivisional matchup in the AFC East, between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. For this game, I’m honing in on Dolphins’ receiver Jaylen Waddle’s receiving yards line for my best bet of the game.
Perpetually in the shadow of Tyreek Hill, Waddle had a very solid Week 1, catching all five of his targets for 109 yards, including a 63 yard catch-and-run.
While the yardage was encouraging, the targets were lower than you’d like to see. However, digging into that matchup retrospectively, the matchup against the Jaguars was always going to be a huge spot for Hill, who led the Dolphins with 12 targets.
The Jaguars corners were in man coverage at the highest rate of all NFL teams last week (per Pro Football Focus). Dating back to last season, Waddle has taken a backseat to Hill against man coverage, with a 22% target rate, compared to Hill’s 33%.
Against zone coverage, that target distribution levels out, with Waddle’s rate upped to 30% in 2023. And the Alabama product is more productive from a yardage standpoint, with 2.93 yards per route run last season against zone coverage, compared to 2.13 against man.
The matchup against the Bills sets up much better for Waddle. Buffalo was in man coverage at the seventh lowest rate in Week 1, following a 2023 where they were also zone-heavy.
Toss in the fact that the Dolphins have already ruled out running back Raheem Mostert, and De’Von Achane is a game-time decision. Against an already stout Bills rush defense, we could see Mike McDaniel opt to air it out even more than usual.
Tonight, I have Waddle’s receiving yards projected in the mid-70s. I’d play this line comfortably up to over 67.5 yards.
