PropBetGuy will break down his favorite NFL player props every week throughout this season, and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
So, let's get right into his top two NFL player prop picks for Sunday's slate of Week 5 matchups, featuring picks for Curtis Samuel and Kamren Curl.
NFL Player Prop Picks
- Curtis Samuel Longest Reception Under 16.5 Yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Kamren Curl Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-145, DraftKings)
With the Buffalo Bills taking on the Houston Texans, I’m eying the Bills slot receiver to stay under his longest reception line.
In his first year in Buffalo, Curtis Samuel has yet to clear this line in limited snaps through four games. In fact, eight of nine of the former Commander’s targets have been for less than 10 air yards. Samuel’s average depth of target (aDOT) is a measly 3.7 yards.
Now, I do expect Samuel to see the field more today, with Bills leading receiver Khalil Shakir ruled out with an injury. However, I don’t project a dramatic change in Samuel’s aDOT.
Receivers Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are all threats to see down-field targets from quarterback Josh Allen. The receiver trio all have aDOTs exceeding 14 yards. And while Samuel does remain a threat to pick up yards after the catch, the Texans are allowing the fourth fewest YAC per reception this season (4.2).
I have Samuel’s longest reception projected closer to 13 yards today.
A new addition to the Rams secondary this season, Curl has been on the field for every defensive snap through four games. The safety has cleared this line in two of his four games, with 24 combined tackles and assists.
Coming off a four tackle performance against the low-volume Bears offense, I like the Rams' safety to bounce back today.
Curl and the Rams will square off against the Packers. Per Jon Macri at Pro Football Focus, Green Bay is allowing 15 combined tackles per game to safeties this season – good for the seventh-most through week 4.
With Jordan Love healthy, I expect that trend to continue, as the Packers offense has multiple skill position players who get to the second level (even without Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs today).
Curl and fellow safety Quentin Lake should continue to dominate the tackle production in the defensive backfield, as the Rams will once again be without John Johnson III.
I have Curl projected at seven combined tackles today.
