PropBetGuy will break down his favorite NFL player props every week throughout this season, and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
So, let's get right into his top two NFL player prop picks for Sunday's slate of Week 9 matchups, featuring picks for David Montgomery, Jonnu Smith, and more!
NFL Player Prop Picks Week 9
- Jonnu Smith Longest Reception: Under 15.5 Yards (-120, DraftKings)
- AJ Barner Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
- David Montgomery Over 12.5 Rush Attempts (-110, bet365)
Jonnu Smith has stayed under this line in five of seven games so far this season. The two overs were on 18 and 17 yard receptions, both with Tyler Huntley under center.
While the passing game will be more functional with Tua Tagovailoa back under center, I do expect Smith to take a back seat to star receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, as well as dual-threat running back, De’Von Achane.
The eighth-year pro should continue in his check-down friendly role. Smith’s average depth of target is 6.1 yards, and only three of his thirty-three targets have traveled more than 15 air yards.
The Bills should serve as a tough opponent. Buffalo ranks 9th in DVOA against tight-ends (per FTN Fantasy) and at 8.3 yards per reception, as they hold the position group to the fifth-lowest total in the NFL.
I have Smith’s longest reception coming in at 13 yards today.
If you immediately said, “who?” I wouldn’t blame you. Barner is the rookie backup tight-end for the Seahawks. However, with starter Noah Fant slated to miss Sunday’s matchup against the Rams due to injury, Barner should be first in line to soak up the opportunity.
The former Michigan Wolverine cleared this line last week in a game where Fant played the entirety. He has a catch in each of his last six appearances, and quarterback Geno Smith has yet to miss on all 10 of his throws to the rookie.
The Rams have allowed opposing tight ends 63.8 receiving yards per game – the fourth-highest mark in the NFL. And they rank dead last in DVOA against the position group (per FTN).
Before last week, Fant had cleared this line in five straight games. And with star receiver DK Metcalf slated to miss yet another game, I see targets going Barner’s way.
I have the first-year pro clearing thirty yards receiving.
This isn’t a prop where you should look at the hit rate: David Montgomery is actually under this line five of seven games this season. However, there are a few reasons why the Lions should dial up their power back in Week 9.
Firstly, the weather is calling for consistent rain and high winds. Not only does this lend to offenses running more in normal circumstances, but this also happens to be the Lions first game played outside all season.
It’s been widely documented that quarterback Jared Goff struggles more in the elements. Conventional thinking would be that the Lions will skew a bit more run heavy than their usual game plan.
And it’s not a bad matchup to run the ball, as the Packers skew slightly better with their pass defense (10th in DVOA, per FTN) than against the run (12th).
Green Bay’s offense has a massive question mark with quarterback Jordan Love questionable for the game. He’s expected to play, but he missed the entire week of practice – not what you want against one of the league’s best defenses.
I have Montgomery closer to 14 totes on Sunday.
