When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
Using our Player Props Tool on Action Labs, we can easily identify the biggest discrepancies between his projections and the Thursday Night Football props on PrizePicks to target the ones with the most value as the 49ers head to Tennessee to take on the Titans.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Props: 49ers-Titans
D’Onta Foreman Over 42.5 Rush Yards
Foreman has received an average of 18 carries over his past three games, which averages to just 2.36 yards per carry to hit this rushing yardage prop.
Foreman has rushed for 109, 47 and 108 yards in the last three games. Those games were a 36-13 blowout loss, a 20-0 blowout win, and a 19-13 close loss. Regardless of tonight’s game script, Foreman should play a major role. The 49ers also rank middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.
We project Foreman for 67 rushing yards This total is 44.5 rushing yards or higher across the rest of the market, providing an extra two-plus yards of value.
Deebo Samuel Under 29.5 Rush Yards
The Deebo Samuel rushing phenomenon is no longer a secret, and I expect Titans head coach Mike Vrabel’s defense to be fully prepared. Samuel’s rushing yardage total has dropped four consecutive weeks, from 79 to 29.
Running back Trey Sermon is designated to return, adding another potential rushing option for the 49ers. The Titans' run defense is among the league's best, with only the Bucs allowing fewer total rushing yards on the season.
I expect Samuel to be used more as a wide receiver on Thursday night, to the delight of fantasy owners everywhere. Tennessee’s defense has allowed the second-most receiving yards and fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, enticing the San Francisco offense to attack through the air.
In a typically sloppy Thursday night game, I’m going under on Samuel’s rushing yardage prop.
Jauan Jennings Over 16.5 Rec Yards
Staying with the theme of the Tennessee run defense, I like Jennings to continue his sneaky usage and crest this receiving yardage prop on Thursday night. He has beaten this prop total in three of the past four games, as saw a season-high 66.2% snap share in Week 14 against Cincinnati.
With Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle drawing defensive attention, Jennings needs just two receptions at his 10.5 yards per reception average to hit this number. He has 11 total targets and six receptions over the past two games.
The Titans rank 26th in Football Outsiders' DVOA to WR3s, allowing more than 80.1 yards per game. This prop is 19.5-20.5 yards elsewhere in the market while we project Jennings for 21.6 yards, more than five above this total.
