Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals his favorite NFL player props for Giants-Bucs on Monday Night Football below. He has a 471-357-8 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app, where you can follow him for more picks.
NFL Props For Giants-Bucs
Kadarius Toney Over 41.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Toney has had a roller-coaster of a rookie season. He's been highly productive while on the field, but has contended with various injuries that have limited his playing time. With the Giants coming off their Week 10 bye, though, we should expect Toney to be close to 100% health — and that creates a great buy-low opportunity.
The Giants will likely want Daniel Jones to get rid of the ball quickly against a Bucs defense that has generated the fifth-highest pressure rate (26%). The Giants' offensive line has been an issue all season, and even if LT Andrew Thomas can make his return tonight, they will struggle against the Bucs' defensive line. This should only elevate the number of targets Toney will see, especially in what should be a pass-heavy, negative game script as the Giants are 10.5-point road dogs (check real-time NFL odds here).
Whenever Sterling Shepard (ruled out) is out of the lineup, Toney offers a high floor/ceiling combo because the two have very similar route trees — and Jones loves to target these routes, which will be a critical factor if the Giants want him to get rid of it quickly tonight. (Route trees via NFL Next Gen Stats.)
Toney's Stats with Shepard Out
- Week 4: 9 targets for 6 receptions and 78 yards
- Week 5: 13 targets for 10 receptions and 189 yards
- Week 9: 1 target for 1 reception and 9 yards
It's worth noting that Toney was playing through a lacerated finger in Week 9, when Jones also attempted only 20 passes in a 23-16 win over the Raiders. I expect that performance to be Toney's literal floor whenever Shepard is out.
Toney is already one of the most dangerous receivers after the catch. His shiftiness can lead to monster gains after the catch, which is key whenever betting on the over on a receiving yardage prop:
Kadarius Toney 10 targets per game who says nopic.twitter.com/SgrsmKfhpc
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 3, 2021
I'm projecting Toney's median closer to 50.5 receiving yards tonight and would bet this up to 45.5 yards.
Pick: Over 41.5 Rec Yards (-110) at FanDuel
