Angels vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - August 12, 2023

Angels at Astros

12:10 am • SportsNet SW

Los Angeles Angels

5-6

3 - 11

Houston Astros

5-5

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Verlander			3.31	7-3
R.Detmers			4.48	4-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Angels 5-6	+1.5-134	o8.5-110	+150
Astros 5-5	-1.5+111	u8.5-110	-179

Saturday 12:10 a.m.

August 12, 2023

Daikin ParkHouston

HOU -1.5+126

1.26u

LAA +1+105

J.Verlander o6.5 Ks-115

$25.22

LAA +150

0.8u

Available at FanDuel. My model puts the Angels' win odds closer to 45% than the implied 40%, allowing me to take the moneyline. This is largely due to continued skepticism around Justin Verlander. He hasn't had the same strikeout juice this year, and it has led to a dip in his peripherals. It's possible the Astros tap into something the Mets didn't, but you're really relying on that in order to justify this price. Reid Detmers has had some rough starts recently, but his underlying numbers are still good, even when he has faced tough opponents. I think the market is too high on Houston here, so I'm fine riding with the underdog.

Featured Insight
The Angels are batting just .226 versus relief pitchers since last season -- tied for fourth-worst in MLB. Opponents are hitting just .219 (704-for-3,218) against AstrosRPs since last season -- fourth-best in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Angels have scored just 4.2 runs per game on the road since last season -- ninth-lowest in MLB (138 games). The Astros have allowed just 3.6 runs per game at home since last season -- third-lowest in MLB (137 games).

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The Astros are 25-17 (.595) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .435.

The Angels are just 50-5 (.909) when leading entering the 9th inning this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.

Yordan Alvarez has an OPS of 1.005 since last season -- second best in MLB-- 99th Percentile. Dominic Leone has allowed an OPS of .798 (368 PAs) since last season -- eighth worst among qualified RPs-- fourth Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Astros are 41-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Astros' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Astros' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	81-80	40-41	41-39	56-60	23-19
Angels	82-80	43-38	39-42	11-17	70-61

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Astros	65-91-5	37-41-3	28-50-2	45-66-5	18-24
Angels	74-80-8	37-40-4	37-40-4	10-17-1	62-62-7

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	88-73	46-35	42-38	66-50	20-22
Angels	63-99	32-49	31-50	9-19	54-77

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 10th	@BAL	L 4-5	-1.5 L	U 9.5	BAL -120
Aug 9th	@BAL	W 8-2	+1.5 W	U 10	HOU +116
Aug 8th	@BAL	W 7-6	-1.5 L	O 8.5	HOU -125
Aug 6th	@NYY	W 9-7	+1.5 W	O 9.5	HOU +108
Aug 5th	@NYY	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 8.5	NYY -144

Lance McCullers
P
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Taylor Trammell
OF
Trammell is out with calf
Out
Cristian Javier
P
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
P
Garcia is out with elbow
Out
Pedro Leon
OF
Leon is out with knee
Out
J.P. France
P
France is out with shoulder
Out

Anthony Rendon
IF
Rendon is out with hip
Out
Zach Neto
IF
Neto is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LR.Detmers, P	48	2.1	0	7
LK.Rosenberg, P	89	5	4	4
RJ. Barria, P	5	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Rengifo, SS	2-4	1	0	1
1L.Rengifo, 2B	2-4	1	0	1
2S.Ohtani, DH	1-4	0	0	0
3B.Drury, 2B	1-4	0	0	1
3B.Drury, 1B	1-4	0	0	1
4M. Moustakas, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
4A. Velazquez, SS	0-0	0	0	0
5C. Cron, 1B	1-3	1	1	1
5E. Escobar, 3B	1-1	0	0	0
6M.Moniak, CF	0-4	0	0	0
7H.Renfroe, RF	0-2	0	0	0
7J.Adams, RF	0-1	0	0	0
8R.Grichuk, LF	0-3	0	0	0
9C. Wallach, C	1-3	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Verlander, P	95	6	7	3
RK.Graveman, P	19	1	2	0
RR.Montero, P	19	1	1	0
RP.Maton, P	5	0	0	0
RR.Stanek, P	5	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	2-3	0	0	1
2A.Bregman, 3B	0-2	0	0	1
2G.Kessinger, PH	0-2	0	0	0
2G.Kessinger, 3B	0-2	0	0	0
3Y.Alvarez, LF	0-4	0	0	1
3C.McCormick, PH	1-1	0	0	0
3C.McCormick, RF	1-1	0	0	0
4K.Tucker, RF	0-4	0	0	0
4J.Meyers, PH	0-1	0	0	0
4J.Meyers, CF	0-1	0	0	0
5Y.Diaz, DH	2-5	2	0	0
6M.Dubon, CF	1-3	3	0	0
6M.Dubon, LF	1-3	3	0	0
7J.Singleton, 1B	3-4	3	2	5
8J.Pena, SS	3-4	2	0	1
9M.Maldonado, C	3-5	1	0	2