Angels vs. Rangers Odds & Betting Predictions - June 13, 2023

Angels at Rangers

12:05 am • MLB Network

Los Angeles Angels

0-0

9 - 6

Texas Rangers

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.Dunning			3.70	12-7
T.Anderson			5.43	6-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Angels 0-0	+1.5-150	o10-115	+130
Rangers 0-0	-1.5+125	u10-110	-155

Tuesday 12:05 a.m.

June 13, 2023

Globe Life FieldArlington

TEX -1.5+125

LAA +135

1.35u

Bet365 7:53.

LAA +132

Dane Dunning sports a 2.52 ERA but he can thank a 80% LOB% and .257 BABIP for his hot start. The one area he has shown improvement in is his walk rate, which has dropped to 2.18 BB/9, thanks to throwing in the zone at a higher rate. That could backfire against an Angels team that swings at pitches in the zone at the 2nd highest rate. Tyler Anderson has struggled with a 5.62 ERA, but his underlying metrics suggest we should expect him to be closer to a 4.60 type of pitcher going forward. I like the value we are getting on the Angels here Edit: meant to post 1u to win 1.32u

TEX -155

1.55u

TEX -1.5+120

Over 10-112

TEX -1.5+120

0.83u

T.Anderson u17.5 Outs-115

1.15u

MGM. Anderson is under in 7/11, including against TEX at home. And in that game, he was hit the 2nd hardest he had been all season. He’s a changeup heavy pitcher, and TEX demolishes changeup (highest wRC in the league).

J.Heim o0.5 RBI+145

J.Heim o1.5 Total Bases+115

1.15u

We’re getting Heim as a righty, his better split (hitting .378), for likely his first two ABs vs the lefty Anderson. Heim is 5/9 off Anderson in his career, with a homer, including 2/3 this season. In fact, Heim has hit the ball at least 98 MPH off the bat in 5 of 9 PAs vs Anderson. It’s a great matchup for him, since his only struggle vs lefties are breaking balls. Against fastballs and offspeed pitches vs lefties, Heim is 14/32 this season and was 26/92 last season. Anderson really only throws a change, 4 seamer and cutter vs righties. Plus, Heim in general has hit relievers well this season - 25/79, .912 OPS (incl 4/7 home runs). Angels bullpen is decent, but has struggled a bit over the last month (18 HR allowed, .477 slugging is 4th and 3rd worst, respectively). And he’s at home where his OPS is .873 (.732 on road). 26 RBI in only 96 PAs at home - averaging one per less than 4 PA. Rangers rake vs lefties at home - Heim should see traffic on the base paths in front of him.

T.Anderson u4.5 Ks-120

T.Anderson u17.5 Outs+115

$125.00

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The Rangers are just 75-5 (.938) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season -- tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.

Mike Trout has a groundball rate of just 28% on fastballs this season -- ninth lowest in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Dane Dunning fastball this season -- ninth highest among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP-- 91st Percentile.

Mike Trout has a groundball rate of just 24% on fastballs since last season -- lowest in MLB-- 0 Percentile. Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% against Dane Dunning fastball since last season -- tied for 11th highest among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP-- 93rd Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Rangers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Rangers are 33-47 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Rangers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 32 of Rangers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rangers	70-91	37-44	33-47	35-56	34-34
Angels	82-80	43-38	39-42	11-17	70-61

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Rangers	74-79-8	32-47-2	42-32-6	40-47-4	34-30-4
Angels	74-80-8	37-40-4	37-40-4	10-17-1	62-62-7

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rangers	78-84	44-37	33-47	52-39	24-44
Angels	63-99	32-49	31-50	9-19	54-77

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 11th	@TB	L 3-7	+1.5 L	O 8.5	TB +160
Jun 10th	@TB	W 8-4	-1.5 W	O 8	TEX -105
Jun 9th	@TB	L 3-8	+1.5 L	O 8.5	TB +145
Jun 8th	STL	L 0-1	-1.5 L	U 9	STL -130
Jun 7th	STL	W 6-4	-1.5 W	O 9.5	TEX -140

Mike Trout
OF
Trout is out with knee
Out
Yoan Moncada
IF
Moncada is out with groin
Out
Jo Adell
OF
Adell is out with oblique
Out
Jose Soriano
P
Soriano is out with shoulder
Out
Chase Silseth
P
Silseth is out with elbow
Out

Corey Seager
IF
Seager is out with hip
Out
Tyler Mahle
P
Mahle is out with shoulder
Out
Evan Carter
OF
Carter is out with back
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LT.Anderson, P	105	6	7	5
RC.Devenski, P	24	1	1	0
RJ.Webb, P	12	1	1	0
RC.Estevez, P	24	1	2	0
RS.Bachman, P	28	2	1	0
LA. Loup, P	20	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Ward, LF	2-5	3	0	0
1T.Ward, 1B	2-5	3	0	0
2S.Ohtani, DH	2-4	2	2	4
3M.Trout, CF	1-3	2	0	1
4A.Rendon, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
4M.Moniak, PR	0-1	0	0	0
4M.Moniak, LF	0-1	0	0	0
5M.Thaiss, C	2-3	0	0	0
5G.Urshela, 3B	0-1	0	0	0
6B.Drury, 2B	0-5	0	0	0
6B.Drury, 1B	0-5	0	0	0
6C. Wallach, C	1-1	1	1	2
7H.Renfroe, RF	0-6	0	0	0
8J. Walsh, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
8L.Rengifo, PH	0-3	0	0	0
8L.Rengifo, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
9Z.Neto, SS	2-5	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.Dunning, P	90	5	3	4
RG.Anderson, P	31	1.2	0	1
RJ.Sborz, P	17	1.1	1	0
LW.Smith, P	20	2	2	0
LC.Ragans, P	27	1.2	1	3
RY.Rodriguez, P	10	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Semien, 2B	0-7	0	0	0
2C.Seager, SS	1-3	1	0	0
3N.Lowe, 1B	0-6	0	0	0
4A.Garcia, RF	1-5	0	0	0
5J.Jung, 3B	2-5	3	0	1
6J.Heim, C	2-5	1	0	0
6J.Smith, PR	0-0	0	0	0
6S. León, C	0-1	0	0	0
7M.Garver, DH	1-6	0	0	1
8E.Duran, LF	1-3	1	1	3
8T.Jankowski, LF	1-2	0	0	0
8R.Grossman, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9L.Taveras, CF	3-5	0	0	0